IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp18740.html

AI and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Fang, Tony

    (Memorial University of Newfoundland, NL, Canada)

  • Lin, Carl

    (Bucknell University Lewisburg, PA, USA)

  • Liu, Qing

    (Hefei University of Technology, Anhui, China)

Abstract

We construct city–year measures of AI labor demand from 1.6 million online job postings between 2016 and 2024, and merge them with nationally representative microdata from the China Family Panel Studies (2016–2022). Fixed-effects estimates show that local AI labor demand has positive impacts on individual wages: a one-unit increase in AI demand (1,000 postings, firms, or job titles) raises wages by about 0.2–0.3 percent. Women experience stronger gains—about 0.5–0.7 percent per unit increase—while men show no measurable effect. Wage effects are largest in Western provinces, and in China's major AI-cluster cities where complementary production factors and digital infrastructure are most developed. Occupational analyses further show that women's gains are concentrated in service-oriented, less skill-intensive jobs where AI complements interpersonal and coordination tasks rather than substituting them. Overall, AI diffusion generates meaningful but unequal labor market spillovers, with wage gains concentrated among women, dynamic regions, and human–AI complementary occupations, underscoring both the opportunities of technological transformation and the challenges of achieving inclusive growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang, Tony & Lin, Carl & Liu, Qing, 2026. "AI and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from China," IZA Discussion Papers 18740, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18740
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp18740.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2021. "The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 333-372, January.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    3. Daron Acemoglu, 2025. "The simple macroeconomics of AI," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 40(121), pages 13-58.
    4. Autor, David, 2013. "The "task approach" to labor markets : an overview," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 46(3), pages 185-199.
    5. Erik Brynjolfsson & Danielle Li & Lindsey Raymond, 2025. "Generative AI at Work," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 140(2), pages 889-942.
    6. Yingying Lu & Yixiao Zhou, 2021. "A review on the economics of artificial intelligence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1045-1072, September.
    7. Ziyue Zhang & Qiyangfan Feng, 2026. "How Does Automation Reshape the Labor Market: Evidence From China," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 458-469, February.
    8. Carlo Pizzinelli & Augustus J Panton & Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares & Mauro Cazzaniga & Longji Li, 2023. "Labor Market Exposure to AI: Cross-country Differences and Distributional Implications," IMF Working Papers 2023/216, International Monetary Fund.
    9. James Bessen, 2018. "AI and Jobs: the role of demand," NBER Working Papers 24235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Giacomo Damioli & Vincent Van Roy & Daniel Vertesy, 2021. "The impact of artificial intelligence on labor productivity," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, March.
    11. Mauro Cazzaniga & Augustus Panton & Longji Li & Carlo Pizzinelli & Marina M. Tavares, 2025. "A Gender Lens on Labor Market Exposure to AI," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 115, pages 56-61, May.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    13. Kosta Josifidis & Novica Supic, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence and the Productivity-Pay Gap in the USA: Industrial Insights and the Revival of Heterodox Ideas," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 540-548, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georgios A. Tritsaris, 2025. "Occupational Tasks, Automation, and Economic Growth: A Modeling and Simulation Approach," Papers 2512.16261, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    2. Florian Schneider, 2026. "Do robots boost productivity? A quantitative meta‐study," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 1531-1571, July.
    3. Laura Abrardi & Carlo Cambini & Laura Rondi, 2022. "Artificial intelligence, firms and consumer behavior: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 969-991, September.
    4. Calvino, Flavio & Fontanelli, Luca, 2026. "AI users are not all alike: The characteristics of French firms buying and developing AI," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(5).
    5. Aísa, Rosa & Cabeza, Josefina, 2025. "Artificial intelligence: Redefining the retirement pattern," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3).
    6. Fabian Stephany & Ole Teutloff & Angelo Leone, 2026. "AI Skills Improve Job Prospects: Causal Evidence from a Hiring Experiment," Papers 2601.13286, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    7. Luca Grilli & Sergio Mariotti & Riccardo Marzano, 2024. "Artificial intelligence and shapeshifting capitalism," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 303-318, April.
    8. Nie, Yafeng & Xue, Kaiyun, 2026. "How artificial intelligence penetration affects workers’ job quality? Empirical evidence from China," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(6).
    9. Aldred, Jonathan, 2026. "The effect of AI on labour demand: A critical assessment of ‘Power and Progress’ by Acemoglu and Johnson," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 188-196.
    10. Orlando Gomes, 2025. "The Human Capital — Artificial Intelligence Symbiosis and Economic Growth," De Economist, Springer, vol. 173(2), pages 331-365, July.
    11. Florian Misch & Ben Park & Carlo Pizzinelli & Galen Sher, 2026. "Artificial Intelligence and Productivity in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 12401, CESifo.
    12. Park, Gangmin & Kang, Songhee & Yi, Sangyoon & Kim, Junyoun, 2026. "Diverse impacts of AI investments on productivity gains: Effects of industry and innovation characteristics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    13. Wang, Qiulin & Hu, Jinmiao, 2025. "How do artificial intelligence applications affect the labor income share?New challenges to common prosperity in the digital economy era," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    14. Karanki, Fecri & Zhang, Anming, 2026. "Impact of Generative AI Models on Labor Utilization and TFP Growth in the U.S. Airline Industry: An Exploratory Analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    15. Xiliu He & Haoxiang Zhao & Mingyi Ma & Edward Wen Chuan Lai & Koei Enomoto & Anni Hu & Jiatong Li & Lingyun Chu & Yuan Lai, 2026. "Generative AI impacts on intra-urban inequality and skill premium in Beijing," Papers 2605.25505, arXiv.org.
    16. Christian Catalini & Xiang Hui & Jane Wu, 2026. "Some Simple Economics of AGI," Papers 2602.20946, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    17. Gao, Jie & Li, Zhizhuo & Nguyen, Thithuha & Zhang, Wentao, 2025. "Digital transformation and enterprise employment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    18. Christos Makridis, 2026. "The Sum of All (Workplace) Fears: How Managers Mediate the Fear of AI Job Displacement," CESifo Working Paper Series 12678, CESifo.
    19. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2025. "Artificial intelligence and labor markets: evidence from google trends," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(4), pages 1078-1093, December.
    20. Czarnitzki, Dirk & Fernández, Gastón P. & Rammer, Christian, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and firm-level productivity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 188-205.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18740. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Fallak (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaalu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.