IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2605.25505.html

Generative AI impacts on intra-urban inequality and skill premium in Beijing

Author

Listed:
  • Xiliu He
  • Haoxiang Zhao
  • Mingyi Ma
  • Edward Wen Chuan Lai
  • Koei Enomoto
  • Anni Hu
  • Jiatong Li
  • Lingyun Chu
  • Yuan Lai

Abstract

Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is the first automation wave to reach high-cognitive tasks at scale, yet its effects on intra-urban inequality remain largely unknown. Using 5 million job postings from Beijing (2018--2024), we construct a neighborhood-level GenAI Exposure Index by aggregating task-level assessments from five leading large language models. We examine the spatial, structural and causal mechanisms of this shock. We find that GenAI exposure is highly concentrated in the city's core districts, deepening the intra-urban AI divide. Since 2023, high-exposure neighborhoods have experienced wage stagnation even as they continue to attract high-skilled workers -- a "high-skill trap." This wage penalty is driven by task de-skilling and intensified labor-market crowding. A difference-in-differences design centered on ChatGPT's release supports a causal interpretation. These findings challenge the prevailing theory of skill-biased technological change and provide a basis for inclusive AI governance in global technology hubs.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiliu He & Haoxiang Zhao & Mingyi Ma & Edward Wen Chuan Lai & Koei Enomoto & Anni Hu & Jiatong Li & Lingyun Chu & Yuan Lai, 2026. "Generative AI impacts on intra-urban inequality and skill premium in Beijing," Papers 2605.25505, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.25505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.25505
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    3. Daron Acemoglu, 2025. "The simple macroeconomics of AI," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 40(121), pages 13-58.
    4. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ms. Florence Jaumotte & Jaden Kim & David Koll & Elmer Li & Longji Li & Mr. Giovanni Melina & Alina Song & Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares, 2026. "Bridging Skill Gaps for the Future: New Jobs Creation in the AI Age," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2026/001, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Gmyrek, Pawel, & Berg, Janine, & Bescond, David,, 2023. "Generative AI and jobs a global analysis of potential effects on job quantity and quality," ILO Working Papers 995324892702676, International Labour Organization.
    7. Aart Kraay & David McKenzie, 2014. "Do Poverty Traps Exist? Assessing the Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 127-148, Summer.
    8. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2024. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1399-1465.
    9. Zsófia L. Bárány & Christian Siegel, 2018. "Job Polarization and Structural Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 57-89, January.
    10. Suzanne Kok & Bas ter Weel, 2014. "Cities, Tasks and Skills," CPB Discussion Paper 269.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nick & Davis, Steven J., 2020. "Why Working From Home Will Stick," SocArXiv wfdbe, Center for Open Science.
    12. Suzanne Kok & Bas ter Weel, 2014. "Cities, Tasks, And Skills," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(5), pages 856-892, November.
    13. David Card & John E. DiNardo, 2002. "Skill-Biased Technological Change and Rising Wage Inequality: Some Problems and Puzzles," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(4), pages 733-783, October.
    14. Xiaoying You, 2026. "China intensifies push to become world leader in tech and AI," Nature, Nature, vol. 651(8107), pages 859-860, March.
    15. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    16. Suzanne Kok & Bas ter Weel, 2014. "Cities, Tasks and Skills," CPB Discussion Paper 269, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Erik Brynjolfsson & Danielle Li & Lindsey Raymond, 2025. "Generative AI at Work," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 140(2), pages 889-942.
    18. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4t83lre9hm91sq006n4940n19s is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Brad Hershbein & Lisa B. Kahn, 2018. "Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence from Vacancy Postings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1737-1772, July.
    20. Enrico Moretti, 2021. "The Effect of High-Tech Clusters on the Productivity of Top Inventors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(10), pages 3328-3375, October.
    21. Ricardo Vinuesa & Hossein Azizpour & Iolanda Leite & Madeline Balaam & Virginia Dignum & Sami Domisch & Anna Felländer & Simone Daniela Langhans & Max Tegmark & Francesco Fuso Nerini, 2020. "The role of artificial intelligence in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    22. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    23. Emily Oster, 2019. "Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 187-204, April.
    24. Kraay, Aart & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Do poverty traps exist ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6835, The World Bank.
    25. David J. Deming, 2017. "The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1593-1640.
    26. Zsófia L. Bárány & Christian Siegel, 2018. "Job Polarization and Structural Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 57-89, January.
    27. Barbara R. Bergmann, 1974. "Occupational Segregation, Wages and Profits When Employers Discriminate by Race or Sex," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 103-110, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jensen, Mathias Fjællegaard & Schneider, Cédric, 2026. "Digital skill adoption and employment dynamics: Evidence from matched vacancy-employer–employee data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(5).
    2. Aakash Kalyani & Nicholas Bloom & Marcela Carvalho & Tarek Hassan & Josh Lerner & Ahmed Tahoun, 2025. "The Diffusion of New Technologies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 140(2), pages 1299-1365.
    3. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    4. Aldred, Jonathan, 2026. "The effect of AI on labour demand: A critical assessment of ‘Power and Progress’ by Acemoglu and Johnson," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 188-196.
    5. Egana-delSol, Pablo & Micco, Alejandro, 2025. "The role of technological change in the evolution of the employment to output elasticity," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 587-599.
    6. Lu, Chia-Hui, 2025. "Automation and job polarization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Prashant Garg & Tommaso Crosta & Jasmin Baier, 2026. "Global Automation Atlas," Papers 2605.17086, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2026.
    8. Enrico Maria Fenoaltea & Dario Mazzilli & Aurelio Patelli & Angelica Sbardella & Andrea Tacchella & Andrea Zaccaria & Marco Trombetti & Luciano Pietronero, 2024. "Follow the money: a startup-based measure of AI exposure across occupations, industries and regions," Papers 2412.04924, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    9. Lipowski, Cäcilia & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn-Weilage, Ulrich, 2024. "Expertise at work: New technologies, new skills, and worker impacts," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-044, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Alex Chernoff & Gabriela Galassi, 2023. "Digitalization: Labour Markets," Discussion Papers 2023-16, Bank of Canada.
    11. Seth Gordon Benzell & Kyle R. Myers, 2026. "Automation Experiments and Inequality," NBER Working Papers 34668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Clément Bosquet & Paul Maarek & Elliot Moiteaux, 2021. "Routine-biased technological change and wages by education level: Occupational downgrading and displacement effects," Working Papers hal-03270715, HAL.
    13. Harry Moroz & Mariana Viollaz, 2024. "The Future of Work in Central America and the Dominican Republic," World Bank Publications - Reports 42043, The World Bank Group.
    14. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2024. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1399-1465.
    15. Mark Hellsten & Giuseppe Pulito & Sarah Schroeder, 2026. "Automation and the Changing Composition of Skill Demand," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26122, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    16. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2026. "What Makes New Work Different from More Work?," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 18(1), pages 535-559, August.
    17. Tianren Li & Yao Hu & Jiachao Peng & Fushun Zhang, 2026. "Artificial intelligence, greening of occupational structure and total factor energy efficiency," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    18. repec:ces:ceswps:_10955 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Tomáš Oleš, 2026. "In-demand skills: a shield against automation—evidence from online job vacancies," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 60(1), pages 1-56, December.
    20. Georgios A. Tritsaris, 2025. "Occupational Tasks, Automation, and Economic Growth: A Modeling and Simulation Approach," Papers 2512.16261, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    21. J. Carter Braxton & Bledi Taska, 2025. "Technological Change and Insuring Job Loss," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 58, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.25505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.