What Makes New Work Different from More Work?

We study the role of expertise in new work—novel occupational roles that emerge as technological and economic conditions evolve—using newly available 1940 and 1950 Census Complete Count files and confidential American Community Survey data from 2011–2023. We show that new work is systematically distinct from simply more work in existing occupations in four respects. First, it attracts workers with distinct characteristics: new work is disproportionately performed by younger and more educated workers, even within detailed occupation-industry cells. Second, new work commands wage premiums that persist beyond workers’ initial entry into new work, consistent with returns to scarce, specialized expertise rather than temporary market disequilibrium. Third, these premiums decline across vintages as expertise diffuses, with ‘newer’ new work commanding larger premiums. Fourth, the emergence of new work can be traced to regional demand shocks, suggesting that expertise formation responds to economic opportunities. These findings suggest that new work is a countervailing force to automation-driven job displacement not merely by creating additional employment, butby generating new domains of human expertise that command market premiums.