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The Diffusion of New Technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Aakash Kalyani
  • Nicholas Bloom
  • Marcela Carvalho
  • Tarek Hassan
  • Josh Lerner
  • Ahmed Tahoun

Abstract

We identify phrases associated with novel technologies using textual analysis of patents, job postings, and earnings calls, enabling us to identify four stylized facts on the diffusion of jobs relating to new technologies. First, the development of economically impactful new technologies is geographically highly concentrated, more so even than overall patenting: 56% of the most economically impactful technologies come from just two U.S. locations, Silicon Valley and the Northeast Corridor. Second, as the technologies mature and the number of related jobs grows, hiring spreads geographically. This process is very slow, taking around 50 years to disperse fully. Third, while initial hiring in new technologies is highly skill-biased, over time the mean skill level in new positions declines, drawing in an increasing number of lower-skilled workers. Finally, the geographic spread of hiring is slowest for higher-skilled positions, with the locations where new technologies were pioneered remaining the focus for the technology's high-skill jobs for decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Aakash Kalyani & Nicholas Bloom & Marcela Carvalho & Tarek Hassan & Josh Lerner & Ahmed Tahoun, 2025. "The Diffusion of New Technologies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 140(2), pages 1299-1365.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:140:y:2025:i:2:p:1299-1365.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qjaf002
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    Cited by:

    1. Georgios A. Tritsaris, 2025. "Occupational Tasks, Automation, and Economic Growth: A Modeling and Simulation Approach," Papers 2512.16261, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    2. Wenli Li & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2026. "Investing in the Shadows: FinTech Growth and Mortgage Market Dynamics," Working Papers 2604, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Dylan Shane Connor & Tom Kemeny & Michael Storper, 2024. "Frontier workers and the seedbeds of inequality and prosperity," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 393-414.
    4. Kristina McElheran & J. Frank Li & Erik Brynjolfsson & Zachary Kroff & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia Foster & Nikolas Zolas, 2024. "AI adoption in America: Who, what, and where," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 375-415, March.
    5. Barbara Biasi & Song Ma, 2022. "The Education-Innovation Gap," CESifo Working Paper Series 9653, CESifo.
    6. Fischer, Bruno & Meissner, Dirk & Vonortas, Nicholas & Guerrero, Maribel, 2022. "Spatial features of entrepreneurial ecosystems," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 27-36.
    7. Sanjay Kumar SINGH & Vijay Lakshmi SINGH, 2023. "Internet diffusion in India: A study based on Growth Curve modelling," Management Research and Practice, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 15(2), pages 29-42, June.
    8. Bachmann, Ronald & Storm, Eduard, 2024. "Wie groß ist die Gefahr eines Fachkräftemangels in Zukunftsberufen? Evidenz für deutsche Metropolregionen," RWI Materialien 166, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    9. Charles Hoffreumon & Chris Forman & Nicolas van Zeebroeck, 2024. "Make or buy your artificial intelligence? Complementarities in technology sourcing," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 452-479, March.
    10. Charles de Grazia & Nicholas E. Rada & Gregory Graff, 2026. "Diffusion of Genetically Modified Crop Technology," WIPO Economic Research Working Papers 93, World Intellectual Property Organization - Economics and Statistics Division.
    11. Babina, Tania & Fedyk, Anastassia & He, Alex & Hodson, James, 2024. "Artificial intelligence, firm growth, and product innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. Petralia, Sergio & Kemeny, Thomas & Storper, Michael, 2023. "The transformative effects of tacit technological knowledge," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120154, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Matthias Niggli & Christian Rutzer, 2023. "Digital technologies, technological improvement rates, and innovations “Made in Switzerland”," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-31, December.
    14. Charalampidis, Nikolaos & Guillochon, Justine, 2025. "Searching for robots," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    15. Zhou, Yuan & Zhang, Qintian & Xu, Guannan & Wang, Yanmeng, 2025. "Regional S&T planning and green generic technologies: A spatial differences-in-difference analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    16. Tarek A. Hassan & Aakash Kalyani & Pascual Restrepo, 2025. "New Technologies and the College Premium," Working Papers 2025-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Nuriye Melisa Bilgin & Ester Faia & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2026. "Technology spillovers, diffusion and rivalry in firm networks," CEP Discussion Papers dp2157, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    18. Tarek A. Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Aakash Kalyani & Markus Schwedeler & Ahmed Tahoun & Laurence van Lent, 2024. "Text as Data in Economic Analysis," Working Papers 2024-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 11 Sep 2025.
    19. Berkes, Enrico & Chen, Matthew Lee & Tranchero, Matteo, 2026. "300 years of British patents," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1).
    20. Bachmann, Ronald & Gonschor, Myrielle & Storm, Eduard & Evans, Julian, 2024. "Berufe der Zukunft im Ruhrgebiet: Studie im Auftrag des Regionalverbands Ruhr. Endbericht," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 296884.
    21. Xiaoyang Li, 2024. "Industry Shakeouts after an Innovation Breakthrough," Working Papers 24-70, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    22. Pablo Ottonello & Wenting Song & Sebastian Sotelo, 2024. "An Anatomy of Firms’ Political Speech," NBER Working Papers 32923, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Trouvain, Florian, 2024. "Technology Adoption, Innovation, and Inequality in a Global World," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302377, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    24. Tiziano Ropele & Alex Tagliabracci, 2026. "The economic impact of artificial intelligence: evidence from Italian firms," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 1005, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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