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Cash Transfers and Employment among Syrian Refugees: Evidence from Rule-Based Eligibility in Türkiye

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Listed:
  • Fatima, Freeha

    (World Bank)

  • Ozen, Efsan

    (World Bank)

  • Raju, Dhushyanth

    (World Bank)

Abstract

We examine whether eligibility for a large-scale humanitarian cash transfer program affects employment outcomes among displaced populations. Exploiting deterministic demographic thresholds governing eligibility for the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) in Türkiye, a nationwide unconditional cash transfer program established primarily to support Syrian refugees, we implement a local-randomization regression discontinuity design to estimate causal effects at the program’s administrative eligibility frontier. We find no statistically significant discontinuities in employment probabilities for either women or men across multiple employment outcomes, including overall employment, wage employment, full-time employment, and nonfarm employment. Estimated effects are small, economically modest, and stable across specifications. Overall, the findings provide little evidence that sustained unconditional cash transfers under the ESSN generated economically meaningful labor supply disincentives at the eligibility margin.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatima, Freeha & Ozen, Efsan & Raju, Dhushyanth, 2026. "Cash Transfers and Employment among Syrian Refugees: Evidence from Rule-Based Eligibility in Türkiye," IZA Discussion Papers 18670, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18670
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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