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The effect of income distribution and fiscal policy on growth, investment, and budget balance

Author

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  • Thomas Obst
  • Özlem Onaran
  • Maria Nikolaidi

Abstract

This paper develops a multi-country post-Kaleckian demand-led growth model that incorporates the role of the government. One novelty of this paper is to integrate crosscountry effects of both changes in income distribution and fiscal policy. The model is used to estimate econometrically the effects of income distribution and fiscal policy on the components of aggregate demand in EU15 countries. The results show that a policy mix that combines the simultaneous implementation of a pro-labour wage policy, an expansionary fiscal policy and a progressive tax policy in all EU countries leads to a significant rise in the EU15 GDP. The impact of wage policies is positive but small; the overall stimulus becomes much stronger with fiscal expansion. This policy mix leads to an improvement in the budget balance in all the EU15 countries, suggesting that expansionary fiscal policy is sustainable when it is combined with wage and progressive tax policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Obst & Özlem Onaran & Maria Nikolaidi, 2017. "The effect of income distribution and fiscal policy on growth, investment, and budget balance," FMM Working Paper 10-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:fmmpap:10-2017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
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    5. Barro, Robert J, 2000. "Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-32, March.
    6. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 141-146, May.
    7. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 2013. "Government spending, aggregate demand, and economic growth," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 105-119, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Özlem Onaran, 2019. "Equality‐led Development and the Demand‐ and Supply‐side Effects," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 50(2), pages 445-457, March.
    2. Hein, Eckhard, 2017. "Financialisation and tendencies towards stagnation: The role of macroeconomic regime changes in the course of and after the financial and economic crisis 2007-9," IPE Working Papers 90/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    3. Cem Oyvat & Oğuz Öztunalı & Ceyhun Elgin, 2020. "Wage‐led versus profit‐led demand: A comprehensive empirical analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 458-486, July.
    4. Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina, 2019. "Personal income distribution and progressive taxation in a neo-Kaleckian model: Insights from the Italian case," IPE Working Papers 126/2019, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    5. Onaran, Özlem & Guschanski, Alexander, 2018. "The causes of falling wage share: sectoral and firm level evidence from developed and developing countries – what have we learned?," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 19373, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    6. Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup & Valdecantos, Sebastián & Raza, Hamid & Laurentjoye, Thibault, 2024. "Functional income distribution, effective demand and wealth in Denmark - insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model," Nülan. Deposited Documents 4307, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    7. Eckhard Hein & Eckhard Achim Truger, 2017. "Opportunities and limits of rebalancing the Eurozone via wage policies," FMM Working Paper 06-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. Robert A Blecker & Michael Cauvel & Y K Kim, 2022. "Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 46(2), pages 391-420.
    9. Stirati, Antonella & Paternesi Meloni, Walter, 2021. "Unemployment and the wage share: a long-run exploration for major mature economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 330-352.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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