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Credit, Securitization and Monetary Policy: Watch Out for Unintended Consequences

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  • Mr. Andrea Pescatori
  • Mr. Juan Sole

Abstract

We show evidence that interest rate hikes slowdown loan growth but lead intermediation to migrate from banks’ balance sheets to non-banks via increased securitization activity. As such, higher interest rates have the potential for unintended consequences; raising systemic risk rather than lowering it by pushing more intermediation activity to more weakly regulated sectors. In the past, this increased securitization activity was driven primarily byb private-label securitization. On the other hand, the government sponsored entities like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae appear to react to higher policy rates by cutting back on their securitization activity but expanding loans to the Federal Home Loan Bank system.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Juan Sole, 2016. "Credit, Securitization and Monetary Policy: Watch Out for Unintended Consequences," IMF Working Papers 2016/076, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/076
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cozzi, Gabriele & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Karadi, Peter & Körner, Jenny & Kok, Christoffer & Mazelis, Falk & Nikolov, Kalin & Rancoita, Elena & Van der Ghote, Alejandro & Weber, Julien, 2020. "Macroprudential policy measures: macroeconomic impact and interaction with monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2376, European Central Bank.
    3. Ugochi Emenogu & Brian Peterson, 2022. "Unregulated Lending, Mortgage Regulations and Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 22-28, Bank of Canada.
    4. Evans, Jocelyn D. & Robertson, Mari L., 2018. "The effects of the Fed’s monetary tightening campaign on nonbank mortgage lending," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 164-168.
    5. Gebauer, Stefan & Mazelis, Falk, 2023. "Macroprudential regulation and leakage to the shadow banking sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Michael Brei & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2020. "Bank intermediation activity in a low‐interest‐rate environment," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 49(2), July.
    7. Josef Bajzik & Jan Janku & Simona Malovana & Klara Moravcova & Ngoc Anh Ngo, 2023. "Monetary Policy Has a Long-Lasting Impact on Credit: Evidence from 91 VAR Studies," Working Papers 2023/19, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    8. Botta, Alberto & Caverzasi, Eugenio & Russo, Alberto, 2024. "Same old song: On the macroeconomic and distributional effects of leaving a Low Interest Rate Environment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 552-570.
    9. Gebauer, Stefan & Mazelis, Falk, 2018. "The Role of Shadow Banking for Financial Regulation," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181581, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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