IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2015-191.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Comparing the Employment-Output Elasticities of Expatriates and Nationals in the Gulf Cooperation Council

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Alberto Behar

Abstract

We estimate the elasticity of private-sector employment to non-oil GDP in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for GCC nationals and expatriates using a Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction (SUREC) model. Our results indicate that the employment response is lower for nationals, who have an estimated short-run elasticity of only 0.15 and a long-run response of 0.7 or less. The elasticity is almost unity for expatriates in the long run and 0.35 in the short run. We interpret low elasticities as indirect evidence of labor market adjustment costs, which could include hiring and firing rigidities, skills mismatches, and reluctance to accept private sector jobs. Forecasts suggest that, absent measures to reduce adjustment costs, the private sector will only be able to absorb a small portion of nationals entering the labor force.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Alberto Behar, 2015. "Comparing the Employment-Output Elasticities of Expatriates and Nationals in the Gulf Cooperation Council," IMF Working Papers 2015/191, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/191
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43203
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Behar & Junghwan Mok, 2019. "Does public‐sector employment fully crowd out private‐sector employment?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 1891-1925, November.
    2. Lorenzo E Bernal-Verdugo & Davide Furceri & Dominique Guillaume, 2012. "Labor Market Flexibility and Unemployment: New Empirical Evidence of Static and Dynamic Effects," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(2), pages 251-273, June.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
    6. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    7. Baldwin-Edwards, Martin, 2011. "Labour immigration and labour markets in the GCC countries: national patterns and trends," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 55239, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Davide Furceri & Ernesto Crivelli & Mr. Joël Toujas-Bernate, 2012. "Can Policies Affect Employment Intensity of Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2012/218, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    10. Abdih, Yasser & Behar, Alberto & Cevik, Serhan & Chami, Ralph & Dougherty-Choux, Lisa & Furceri, Davide & Janus, Nick & Zimand, Paul, 2012. "A Template for Analyzing and Projecting Labor Market Indicators," MPRA Paper 82682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. World Bank, "undated". "Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects, September 2011 : Investing for Growth and Jobs [Région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord de la Banque mondiale : Évolution et perspec," World Bank Publications - Reports 12434, The World Bank Group.
    12. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, Decembrie.
    13. Richard Freeman, 2005. "Labour market institutions without blinders: The debate over flexibility and labour market performance," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 129-145.
    14. Davide Furceri & Mr. Lorenzo E. Bernal-Verdugo & Mr. Dominique M. Guillaume, 2012. "Crises, Labor Market Policy, and Unemployment," IMF Working Papers 2012/065, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Vermeulen, Philip, 2007. "Can adjustment costs explain the variability and counter-cyclicality of the labour share at the firm and aggregate level?," Working Paper Series 772, European Central Bank.
    16. Howell David R. & Baker Dean & Glyn Andrew & Schmitt John, 2007. "Are Protective Labor Market Institutions at the Root of Unemployment? A Critical Review of the Evidence," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-73, May.
    17. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    19. Alberto Behar, 2010. "Would Cheaper Capital Replace Labour?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(2), pages 131-151, June.
    20. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    21. Behar Alberto & Hodge James, 2008. "The Employment Effects of Mergers in a Declining Industry: The Case of South African Gold Mining," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, August.
    22. Espinoza, Raphael & Fayad, Ghada & Prasad, Ananthakrishnan, 2013. "The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199683796, Decembrie.
    23. Nicola GIAMMARIOLI & Julian MESSINA & Thomas STEINBERGER & Chiara STROZZI, 2002. "European Labor Share Dynamics: An Institutional Perspective," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/13, European University Institute.
    24. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    25. Döpke, Jörg, 2001. "The "Employment Intensity" of Growth in Europe," Kiel Working Papers 1021, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hind Alofaysan & Fatma Mabrouk & Jihen Bousrih, 2022. "Assessment of the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Economic Performance: DSGE and Probit Investigations," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 11, July.
    2. Görg, Holger & Hornok, Cecília & Montagna, Catia & Onwordi, George E., 2018. "Employment to Output Elasticities & Reforms towards Flexicurity: Evidence from OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 12004, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Alberto Behar & Armand Fouejieu, 2018. "External adjustment in oil exporters: The role of fiscal policy and the exchange rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 926-957, March.
    4. Blazquez, Jorge & Galeotti, Marzio & Manzano, Baltasar & Pierru, Axel & Pradhan, Shreekar, 2021. "Effects of Saudi Arabia’s economic reforms: Insights from a DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 145-169.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/327, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alberto Behar & Junghwan Mok, 2019. "Does public‐sector employment fully crowd out private‐sector employment?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 1891-1925, November.
    2. Silvia Fedeli & Vitantonio Mariella & Marco Onofri, 2018. "Determinants of Joblessness During the Economic Crisis: Impact of Criminality in the Italian Labour Market," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 559-588, September.
    3. Davide Furceri, 2012. "Unemployment and Labor Market Issues in Algeria," IMF Working Papers 2012/099, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Sabina Avdagic, 2015. "Does Deregulation Work? Reassessing the Unemployment Effects of Employment Protection," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 6-26, March.
    5. Abonazel, Mohamed R., 2016. "Bias Correction Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects," MPRA Paper 70628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Dilla, Diana, 2017. "Staatsverschuldung und Verschuldungsmentalität [Public Debt and Debt Mentality]," MPRA Paper 79432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dorothée Charlier & Mouez Fodha & Djamel Kirat, 2023. "Residential CO2 Emissions in Europe and Carbon Taxation: A Country-Level Assessment," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(5), pages 187-206, September.
    8. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2011. "Trade Openness, Market Competition, and Inflation: Some Sectoral Evidence from OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3690, CESifo.
    9. Davide Furceri & Ernesto Crivelli & Mr. Joël Toujas-Bernate, 2012. "Can Policies Affect Employment Intensity of Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2012/218, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Garita, Gus, 2009. "How Does Financial Openness Affect Economic Growth and its Components?," MPRA Paper 20099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Oberndorfer, Ulrich & Moslener, Ulf & Böhringer, Christoph & Ziegler, Andreas, 2008. "Clean and Productive? Evidence from the German Manufacturing Industry," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-091, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2022. "Revisiting The Determinants Of Sovereign Bond Yield Volatility," Working Papers REM 2022/0241, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Aiello, Francesco & Pupo, Valeria, 2012. "Structural funds and the economic divide in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 403-418.
    14. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "The balance of payments-constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(4), pages 817-838.
    15. Robert Vergeer & Alfred Kleinknecht, 2012. "Do Flexible Labor Markets Indeed Reduce Unemployment? A Robustness Check," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(4), pages 451-467, December.
    16. Mali Chivakul & Bernhard Kassner, 2019. "Can Consumption Growth in China Keep Up as Investment Slows?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 381-412, September.
    17. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/9d007rc2q9huruni0kde2vr73 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Andrea Bassanini & Romain Duval, 2009. "Unemployment, institutions, and reform complementarities: re-assessing the aggregate evidence for OECD countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(1), pages 40-59, Spring.
    19. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    20. David R. Howell, 2010. "Institutions, Aggregate Demand and Cross-Country Employment Performance: Alternative Theoretical Perspectives and the Evidence," Working Papers wp228, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.