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Global Poverty Estimates: A Sensitivity Analysis

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  • Ms. Camelia Minoiu
  • Ms. Shatakshee Dhongde

Abstract

Current estimates of global poverty vary substantially across studies. In this paper we undertake a novel sensitivity analysis to highlight the importance of methodological choices in estimating global poverty. We measure global poverty using different data sources, parametric and nonparametric estimation methods, and multiple poverty lines. Our results indicate that estimates of global poverty vary significantly when they are based alternately on data from household surveys versus national accounts but are relatively consistent across different estimation methods. The decline in poverty over the past decade is found to be robust across methodological choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Camelia Minoiu & Ms. Shatakshee Dhongde, 2011. "Global Poverty Estimates: A Sensitivity Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2011/234, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/234
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    3. Achille Lemmi & Donatella Grassi & Alessandra Masi & Nicoletta Pannuzi & Andrea Regoli, 2019. "Methodological Choices and Data Quality Issues for Official Poverty Measures: Evidences from Italy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 299-330, January.
    4. Mysikova, Martina & Zelinsky, Tomas, 2019. "On the Measurement of the Income Poverty Rate: the Equivalence Scale across Europe," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 383-397.
    5. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    6. Armando Barrientos, 2016. "Inequality, Poverty, and Antipoverty Transfers," Working Papers id:11190, eSocialSciences.
    7. Stein, Alexander J., 2013. "Rethinking the measurement of undernutrition in a broader health context: Should we look at possible causes or actual effects:," IFPRI discussion papers 1298, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Jordá, Vanesa & Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel, 2019. "Global inequality: How large is the effect of top incomes?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Edward, Peter & Sumner, Andy, 2014. "Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 67-82.
    10. Vanesa Jorda & José María Sarabia & Markus Jäntti, 2021. "Inequality measurement with grouped data: Parametric and non‐parametric methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(3), pages 964-984, July.
    11. Crombrugghe, D.P.I. de & Szirmai, A. & Bluhm, R., 2014. "Poor trends: The pace of poverty reduction after the Millennium Development Agenda," MERIT Working Papers 2014-006, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    12. Vanesa Jorda & José María Sarabia & Markus Jäntti, 2020. "Estimation of Income Inequality from Grouped Data," LIS Working papers 804, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    13. Moatsos Michail, 2016. "Global Absolute Poverty: Behind the Veil of Dollars," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-28, December.
    14. Alkire, Sabina & Santos, Maria Emma, 2014. "Measuring Acute Poverty in the Developing World: Robustness and Scope of the Multidimensional Poverty Index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 251-274.
    15. Moatsos, Michail & Lazopoulos, Achillefs, 2021. "Global poverty: A first estimation of its uncertainty," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    16. Bolch, Kimberly B. & Ceriani, Lidia & López-Calva, Luis F., 2022. "The arithmetics and politics of domestic resource mobilization for poverty eradication," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

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