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Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?

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  • Edward, Peter
  • Sumner, Andy

Abstract

Estimates of the historic and future scale and location or “geography” of global poverty by income/expenditure have a long and contentious history. In recent projections made on global poverty, methods and assumptions vary so widely it is impossible to compare studies in a systematic way even on their estimates of current poverty. In light of this, we discuss the methodological issues arising and use a custom-built model to provide a new, consistent set of long-run estimates of global poverty to show the impact of different methods and assumptions on the scale and location of global poverty.

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  • Edward, Peter & Sumner, Andy, 2014. "Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 67-82.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:58:y:2014:i:c:p:67-82
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.12.009
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    8. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    9. Zorobabel Bicabaa & Zuzana Brixiová & Mthuli Ncube, 2017. "Can Extreme Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa be Eliminated by 2030?," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 19(2), pages 93-110.
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    13. Clément, Matthieu & Rougier, Eric & Berrou, Jean-Philippe & Combarnous, François & Darbon, Dominique, 2022. "“What’s in the middle”: Scratching beneath the surface of the middle class(es) in Brazil, Côte d’Ivoire, Turkey and Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
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