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International poverty projections

  • Anand, Sudhir
  • Kanbur, S. M. Ravi

The authors investigate the methodology used in projections of international poverty - particularly those used in many World Bank documents. The methodology, as developed by Ahluwalia, Carter, and Chenery (1979) in an influential paper, is examined critically and subjected to sensitivity analysis. It was found that their projections of poverty are not robust to reasonable changes and improvements in the methodology; in some cases, even the projections'time trend is reversed. Thus, analysts and policymakers should treat such global forecasts of poverty with caution.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 617.

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Date of creation: 31 Mar 1991
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:617
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  1. Ahluwalia, Montek S. & Carter, Nicholas G. & Chenery, Hollis B., 1979. "Growth and poverty in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 299-341, August.
  2. Ahluwalia, Montek S., 1976. "Inequality, poverty and development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 307-342, December.
  3. Anand, Sudhir & Kanbur, S. M. R., 1993. "The Kuznets process and the inequality--development relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 25-52, February.
  4. Anand, Sudhir, 1977. "Aspects of Poverty in Malaysia," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 23(1), pages 1-16, March.
  5. Sen, Amartya K, 1976. "Poverty: An Ordinal Approach to Measurement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 219-31, March.
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