IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0270846.html

How many people is the COVID-19 pandemic pushing into poverty? A long-term forecast to 2050 with alternative scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan D Moyer
  • Willem Verhagen
  • Brendan Mapes
  • David K Bohl
  • Yutang Xiong
  • Vivian Yang
  • Kaylin McNeil
  • José Solórzano
  • Mohammod Irfan
  • Cade Carter
  • Barry B Hughes

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the course of human development. In this manuscript we analyze the long-term effect of COVID-19 on poverty at the country-level across various income thresholds to 2050. We do this by introducing eight quantitative scenarios that model the future of Sustainable Development Goal 1 (SDG1) achievement using alternative assumptions about COVID-19 effects on both economic growth and inequality in the International Futures model. Relative to a scenario without the pandemic (the No COVID scenario), the COVID Base scenario increases global extreme poverty by 73.9 million in 2020 (the range across all scenarios: 43.5 to 155.0 million), 63.6 million in 2030 (range: 9.8 to 167.2 million) and 57.1 million in 2050 (range: 3.1 to 163.0 million). The COVID Base results in seven more countries not meeting the SDG1 target by 2030 that would have achieved the target in a No COVID scenario. The most pessimistic scenario results in 17 more countries not achieving SDG1 compared with a No COVID scenario. The greatest pandemic driven increases in poverty occur in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan D Moyer & Willem Verhagen & Brendan Mapes & David K Bohl & Yutang Xiong & Vivian Yang & Kaylin McNeil & José Solórzano & Mohammod Irfan & Cade Carter & Barry B Hughes, 2022. "How many people is the COVID-19 pandemic pushing into poverty? A long-term forecast to 2050 with alternative scenarios," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(7), pages 1-21, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0270846
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270846
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0270846
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0270846&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0270846?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lutz, Wolfgang & Butz, William P. & KC, Samir (ed.), 2014. "World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198703167.
    2. Simon Mongey & Laura Pilossoph & Alexander Weinberg, 2021. "Which workers bear the burden of social distancing?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 509-526, September.
    3. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    4. repec:wbk:wbpubs:34496 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    6. Chotikapanich, Duangkamon & Valenzuela, Rebecca & Rao, D S Prasada, 1997. "Global and Regional Inequality in the Distribution of Income: Estimation with Limited and Incomplete Data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 533-546.
    7. David Laborde & Will Martin & Rob Vos, 2021. "Impacts of COVID‐19 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(3), pages 375-390, May.
    8. Martin Ravallion, 2013. "How Long Will It Take to Lift One Billion People Out of Poverty?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 139-158, August.
    9. Baquedano, Felix G. & Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe & Valdes, Constanza & Ajewole, Kayode, "undated". "International Food Security Assessment 2021-31," USDA Miscellaneous 312952, United States Department of Agriculture.
    10. repec:wbk:wbpubs:37224 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Steven J. Keuning & Willem A. de Ruuter, 1988. "Guidelines To The Construction Of A Social Accounting Matrix," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 34(1), pages 71-100, March.
    12. Tomoko Hasegawa & Shinichiro Fujimori & Petr Havlík & Hugo Valin & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Jonathan C. Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Page Kyle & Jason F. L. Koopman & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Daniel Maso, 2018. "Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 699-703, August.
    13. repec:wbk:wbpubs:34710 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Anthony F. Shorrocks & Guanghua Wan, 2008. "Ungrouping Income Distributions: Synthesising Samples for Inequality and Poverty Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-16, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Andy Sumner & Christopher Hoy & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, 2020. "Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. repec:wbk:wbpubs:36519 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Moyer, Jonathan D. & Hedden, Steve, 2020. "Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    18. Maho Hatayama & Mariana Viollaz & Hernan Winkler, 2020. "Jobs’ Amenability to Working from Home: Evidence from Skills Surveys for 53 Countries," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0263, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    19. Bjoern Soergel & Elmar Kriegler & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Nico Bauer & Marian Leimbach & Alexander Popp, 2021. "Combining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    20. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Fengler & Homi Kharas & Karim Bekhtiar & Michael Brottrager & Martin Hofer, 2018. "Will the Sustainable Development Goals be fulfilled? Assessing present and future global poverty," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    21. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    22. Edward, Peter & Sumner, Andy, 2014. "Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 67-82.
    23. repec:wbk:wbpubs:35647 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Andy Sumner & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez & Christopher Hoy, 2022. "Measuring global poverty before and during the pandemic: a political economy of overoptimism," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 1-17, January.
    25. Francois Bourguignon, 2004. "The Poverty-growth-inequality triangle," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 125, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sen, Kanchan Kumar & Chapman, Andrew J. & Saha, Bidyut Baran, 2025. "Analyzing the influence of energy poverty on newborn mortality through econometric and machine learning approaches," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. Mihail Busu & Mihai Gheorghe & Gabriel Staicu & Enrico Prinz & Luis Miguel Fonseca, 2025. "Determinants of Uneven Progress in Sustainable Development in the EU: Predictive Approaches Based on Machine Learning," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 27(S19), pages 1272-1272, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moyer, Jonathan D., 2023. "Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    2. Moyer, Jonathan D. & Hedden, Steve, 2020. "Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2024. "Assessing the Impact of Covid-19 in Mozambique in 2020," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 36(4), pages 803-840, August.
    4. Adarov, Amat & Guénette, Justin Damien & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2022. "Another legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic: Income divergence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 842-854.
    5. Rodrigo García Arancibia & Ignacio Girela & Daniela Agostina Gonzalez, 2025. "Global Multidimensional Poverty Prediction using World Development Indicators," Working Papers 350, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    6. Facundo Alvaredo & Leonardo Gasparini, 2013. "Recent Trends in Inequality and Poverty in Developing Countries," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0151, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    7. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    8. Barry B. Hughes, 2025. "Analysis of Integrated Global SDG Pursuit: Challenges and Progress," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-27, July.
    9. Gaupp, F. & Ruggeri Laderchi, C. & Lotze-Campen, H. & DeClerck, F. & Bodirsky, B. L. & Lowder, S. & Popp, A. & Kanbur, R. & Edenhofer, O. & Nugent, R. & Fanzo, J. & Dietz, S. & Nordhagen, S. & Fan, S., 2021. "Food system development pathways for healthy, nature-positive and inclusive food systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113421, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Gutiérrez-Romero, Roxana & Ahamed, Mostak, 2021. "COVID-19 response needs to broaden financial inclusion to curb the rise in poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Wietzke, Frank-Borge, 2024. "Perceptions of social class in Africa. Results from a conjoint experiment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    12. Alkire, Sabina & Nogales, Ricardo & Quinn, Natalie Naïri & Suppa, Nicolai, 2021. "Global multidimensional poverty and COVID-19: A decade of progress at risk?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    13. Isaac K. Ofori & Mark K. Armah & Emmanuel E. Asmah, 2021. "Towards the Reversal of Poverty and Income Inequality Setbacks Due to COVID-19: The Role of Globalisation and Resource Allocation," Working Papers 21/043, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    14. Lei Fu & Weiyi Liang, 2025. "How Improving the Quality of Foreign Direct Investment Can Promote Sustainable Development: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-29, April.
    15. Decerf, Benoit & Ferreira, Francisco H.G. & Mahler, Daniel G. & Sterck, Olivier, 2021. "Lives and livelihoods: Estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the Covid-19 pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    16. Kibrom A Abay & Nishant Yonzan & Sikandra Kurdi & Kibrom Tafere, 2023. "Revisiting Poverty Trends and the Role of Social Protection Systems in Africa during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 44-68.
    17. Peter Edward, Andy Sumner, 2015. "Philanthropy, Welfare Capitalism or Radically Different Global Economic Model: What Would It Take to End Global Poverty within a Generation Based on Historical Growth Patterns? - Working Paper 413," Working Papers 413, Center for Global Development.
    18. Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    19. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Fengler & Homi Kharas & Karim Bekhtiar & Michael Brottrager & Martin Hofer, 2018. "Will the Sustainable Development Goals be fulfilled? Assessing present and future global poverty," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    20. Prager, Steven D. & Wiebe, Keith D., 2022. "Strategic foresight in One CGIAR: Gaps and needs in approaches and capacity," Other briefs January 2022, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0270846. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.