IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/opmare/v16y2023i2d10.1007_s12063-022-00327-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of forecasting in preventing supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a distributor-retailer perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Karzan Mahdi Ghafour

    (University of Sulaimani)

  • Abdulqadir Rahomee Ahmed Aljanabi

    (Sulaimani Polytechnic University)

Abstract

Strengthen the resilience of supply chains was observed to be critical issue by firms to confront disruptions triggered by unprecedented demand and severe disasters. However, the extraordinarily challenging disruptions of COVID-19 pandemic, unlike any disasters seen in recent times. This study aims to provide a practical solution to supply chain (SC) disruptions by estimating the best forecasting models for demand fluctuations in the context of food and beverages. A method is proposed to predict SC disruptions and enhance SC resilience. Double exponential smoothing (DES) and the ARIMA model are adopted as forecasting approaches to estimate demand and optimum inventory quantities during three different periods of disruption associated with the COVID-19 outbreak. A downstream SC involving 2 distributors and 56 retailers is considered to elaborate inventory measurements (optimal inventory levels and total costs). The results demonstrate that distributors can reduce costs by dispensing with some retailers, particularly those who order low quantities and thus incur unjustified expenses. Furthermore, high accuracy is obtained, with minimal differences between the real data and the model’s forecast. Existing research has largely ignored supply disruptions in the distributor-retailer relationship. This study provides distributors and SC managers important knowledge on SC disruptions and identifies appropriate forecasting methods to increase SC resilience. It also provides distributors and other SC managers unprecedented insights on tackling crises of stability like COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Karzan Mahdi Ghafour & Abdulqadir Rahomee Ahmed Aljanabi, 2023. "The role of forecasting in preventing supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a distributor-retailer perspective," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 780-793, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:opmare:v:16:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s12063-022-00327-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s12063-022-00327-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12063-022-00327-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12063-022-00327-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Song, Shuang & Goh, Jenson C.L. & Tan, Hugh T.W., 2021. "Is food security an illusion for cities? A system dynamics approach to assess disturbance in the urban food supply chain during pandemics," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Prentice, Catherine & Chen, Jinyan & Stantic, Bela, 2020. "Timed intervention in COVID-19 and panic buying," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Tliche, Y. & Taghipour, A. & Canel-Depitre, B., 2019. "Downstream Demand Inference in decentralized supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 65-77.
    4. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-10.
    5. Chowdhury, Priyabrata & Paul, Sanjoy Kumar & Kaisar, Shahriar & Moktadir, Md. Abdul, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic related supply chain studies: A systematic review," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Jill E. Hobbs, 2021. "Food supply chain resilience and the COVID‐19 pandemic: What have we learned?," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 189-196, June.
    7. Karzan Ghafour, 2017. "The Role of Items Quantity Constraint to Control the Optimal Economic Order Quantity," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(9), pages 1-61, September.
    8. B. James Deaton & Brady J. Deaton, 2021. "Food security and Canada's agricultural system challenged by COVID‐19: One year later," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 161-166, June.
    9. World Bank, 2021. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2021," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 34710, April.
    10. Sube Singh & Ramesh Kumar & Rohit Panchal & Manoj Kumar Tiwari, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on logistics systems and disruptions in food supply chain," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(7), pages 1993-2008, April.
    11. Youssef Tliche & A. Taghipour & B. Canel-Depitre, 2019. "Downstream Demand Inference in decentralized supply chains," Post-Print hal-02173401, HAL.
    12. Karzan Mahdi Ghafour, 2018. "Optimising safety stocks and reorder points when the demand and the lead-time are probabilistic in cement manufacturing," International Journal of Procurement Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 387-398.
    13. Jessica Olivares-Aguila & Waguih ElMaraghy, 2021. "System dynamics modelling for supply chain disruptions," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(6), pages 1757-1775, March.
    14. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Author's retrospective on 'Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages'," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-13.
    15. World Bank, 2021. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2021," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 35647, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ali, Imran & Arslan, Ahmad & Chowdhury, Maruf & Khan, Zaheer & Tarba, Shlomo Y., 2022. "Reimagining global food value chains through effective resilience to COVID-19 shocks and similar future events: A dynamic capability perspective," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1-12.
    2. Abhijit Majumdar & Rohit Agrawal & Rakesh D. Raut & Balkrishna E. Narkhede, 2023. "Two years of COVID-19 pandemic: Understanding the role of knowledge-based supply chains towards resilience through bibliometric and network analyses," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 1105-1121, September.
    3. D. G. Mogale & Xun Wang & Emrah Demir & Vasco Sanchez Rodrigues, 2023. "Modelling and analysing supply chain disruption: a case of online grocery retailer," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1901-1924, December.
    4. Priom Mahmud & Sanjoy Kumar Paul & Abdullahil Azeem & Priyabrata Chowdhury, 2021. "Evaluating Supply Chain Collaboration Barriers in Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-28, July.
    5. Simona Mikšíková & David Ulčák & František Kuda, 2022. "Analysis of Malfunctions in Selected Parking Systems in the Czech Republic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-10, February.
    6. Amirali Nasouri, 2025. "The Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Equity Markets and Financial Stress: A Comparative Analysis of Emerging and Advanced Economies," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 30-41.
    7. Tiantian Tu, 2025. "Bridging Short- and Long-Term Dependencies: A CNN-Transformer Hybrid for Financial Time Series Forecasting," Papers 2504.19309, arXiv.org.
    8. Dyna Heng & Anna Ivanova & Rodrigo Mariscal & Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan & Joyce Wong, 2016. "Advancing Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2016/081, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Rozhkov, Maxim & Ivanov, Dmitry & Blackhurst, Jennifer & Nair, Anand, 2022. "Adapting supply chain operations in anticipation of and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2022. "Forecasting natural gas consumption using Bagging and modified regularization techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    11. Torres-Brito, David Israel & Cruz-Aké, Salvador & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2023. "Impacto de los contaminantes por gases de efecto invernadero en el crecimiento económico en 86 países (1990-2019): Sobre la curva inversa de Kuznets [Impact of the Effect of Greenhouse Gas Pollutan," MPRA Paper 119031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jacob A. Jordaan, 2023. "Firm‐level characteristics and the impact of COVID‐19: Examining the effects of foreign ownership and international trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 1967-1998, July.
    13. Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius, 2006. "Forecasting daily time series using periodic unobserved components time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 885-903, November.
    14. Partha Chatterjee & Aakash Dev, 2023. "Labour Market Dynamics and Worker Flows in India: Impact of Covid-19," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 66(1), pages 299-327, March.
    15. Kose M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge Franziska & Sugawara Naotaka, 2022. "A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 233-268, December.
    16. Jose Cuesta & Lucia Madrigal & Natalia Pecorari, 2024. "Social sustainability, poverty and income: An empirical exploration," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 1789-1816, April.
    17. Giovanni Antonio COSSIGA, 2025. "The Theory of Economic Sustainability in a Scenario Influenced by Inflation or Deflation," Review of European Studies, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(3), pages 1-1, January.
    18. Julia M. Puaschunder, 2022. "Finance after the Great Reset: Resilience Finance, Responsible Investment and Finance Politics," RAIS Conference Proceedings 2022-2024 0221, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    19. Kosuke Kawakami & Hirokazu Kobayashi & Kazuhide Nakata, 2021. "Seasonal Inventory Management Model for Raw Materials in Steel Industry," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 51(4), pages 312-324, July.
    20. Quintero Gutiérrez, Laura Victoria & García Rendón, John & Gutiérrez Gómez, Alejandro, 2024. "Impact of COVID-19 preventive measures on electricity demand: Evidence from Colombia," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:opmare:v:16:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s12063-022-00327-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.