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System dynamics modelling for supply chain disruptions

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  • Jessica Olivares-Aguila
  • Waguih ElMaraghy

Abstract

Unexpected events or black swan events could highly deteriorate supply chain performance. Hence, proactive and reactive strategies should be considered when planning for disruptions in a multi-echelon supply chain. In this study, a system dynamics framework is introduced to observe the supply chain behaviour and evaluate the impacts of disruptions. The model enables the examination of full and partial disruptions and the incorporation of expediting orders after a disturbance. The effects of disruptions on the service levels, costs, profits and inventory levels, of the supply chain are analysed. The usage of the framework and the findings can serve to define disruption policies, and assist in the decisions relating to the supply chain design. After running several scenarios, it was determined that the disruptions happening in the downstream levels have more impacts on the SC performance than the disruptions in the upstream levels. Hence, the disruption policies for the downstream levels should have higher priority. Moreover, the results suggest that expediting after disruptions do not offer benefits to the long-term supply chain performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica Olivares-Aguila & Waguih ElMaraghy, 2021. "System dynamics modelling for supply chain disruptions," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(6), pages 1757-1775, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tprsxx:v:59:y:2021:i:6:p:1757-1775
    DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2020.1725171
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karzan Mahdi Ghafour & Abdulqadir Rahomee Ahmed Aljanabi, 2023. "The role of forecasting in preventing supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a distributor-retailer perspective," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 780-793, June.
    2. Yulan Zhou & Hao Li & Shuoqi Hu & Xiaozhong Yu, 2024. "RETRACTION ARTICLE: Two-stage supply chain inventory management based on system dynamics model for reducing bullwhip effect of sulfur product," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 337(1), pages 5-5, June.
    3. Apostolos Vetsikas & Yeoryios Stamboulis, 2023. "A conceptual framework for modeling heterogeneous actors' behavior in national innovation systems," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 773-796, July.
    4. Wei Wang & Haofei Wang & Xueqin Wang, 2024. "Simulation and prediction of the dynamic evolution characteristics of resource- and technology-driven economic development models: a case study of the Yangtze River economic belt in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 17967-17993, July.
    5. Hendalianpour, Ayad & Liu, Peide & Amirghodsi, Sirous & Hamzehlou, Mohammad, 2022. "Designing a System Dynamics model to simulate criteria affecting oil and gas development contracts," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Imad El Harraki & Mohammad Zoynul Abedin & Amine Belhadi & Sachin Kamble & Karim Zkik & Mustapha Oudani, 2024. "Data‐driven control and a prey–predator model for sourcing decisions in the low‐carbon intertwined supply chain," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(8), pages 9141-9160, December.
    7. Manik Debnath & Sanat Kr. Mazumder & Md Billal Hossain & Arindam Garai & Csaba Balint Illes, 2023. "Optimal Base-Stock Inventory-Management Policies of Cement Retailers under Supply-Side Disruptions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-34, September.
    8. Md. Ismail Hossain & Subrata Talapatra & Palash Saha & H. M. Belal, 2025. "From Theory to Practice: Leveraging Digital Twin Technologies and Supply Chain Disruption Mitigation Strategies for Enhanced Supply Chain Resilience with Strategic Fit in Focus," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 26(1), pages 87-109, March.
    9. Efthymios Katsoras & Patroklos Georgiadis, 2022. "A Dynamic Analysis for Mitigating Disaster Effects in Closed Loop Supply Chains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, April.

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