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Will the Sustainable Development Goals be fulfilled? Assessing present and future global poverty

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU)
    World Population Program
    Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA,VID/OEAW,WU)
    Austrian Institute of Economic Research)

  • Wolfgang Fengler

    (The World Bank)

  • Homi Kharas

    (World Data Lab
    The Brookings Institution)

  • Karim Bekhtiar

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU))

  • Michael Brottrager

    (Johannes Kepler University)

  • Martin Hofer

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU)
    World Data Lab)

Abstract

Monitoring progress towards the fulfillment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires the assessment of potential future trends in poverty. This paper presents an econometric tool that provides a methodological framework to carry out projections of poverty rates worldwide and aims at assessing absolute poverty changes at the global level under different scenarios. The model combines country-specific historical estimates of the distribution of income, using Beta–Lorenz curves, with projections of population changes by age and education attainment level, as well as GDP projections to provide the first set of internally consistent poverty projections for all countries of the world. Making use of demographic and economic projections developed in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, we create poverty paths by country up to the year 2030. The differences implied by different global scenarios span worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) by the end of our projection period. The largest differences in poverty headcount and poverty rates across scenarios appear for Sub-Saharan Africa, where the projections for the most optimistic scenario imply over 300 million individuals living in extreme poverty in 2030. The results of the comparison of poverty scenarios point towards the difficulty of fulfilling the first goal of the SDGs unless further development policy efforts are enacted.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Fengler & Homi Kharas & Karim Bekhtiar & Michael Brottrager & Martin Hofer, 2018. "Will the Sustainable Development Goals be fulfilled? Assessing present and future global poverty," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:4:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-018-0083-y
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-018-0083-y
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    1. Yuan, Rong & Wang, Juan, 2021. "Impacts of poverty alleviation on household GHG footprints in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Vera-Cossio, Diego A. & Hoffmann, Bridget & Pecha, Camilo & Gallego, Jorge & Stampini, Marco & Vargas, David & Medina, María Paula & Álvarez, Esteban, 2023. "Re-thinking Social Protection: From Poverty Alleviation to Building Resilience in Middle-Income Households," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12925, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Vanessa Hartmann & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2023. "Poverty decompositions with counterfactual income and inequality dynamics," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 1746-1768, August.
    4. Siddhartha Mitra & Raadhika Paul, 2018. "The Impact of Poverty on the Environment: Surprising Findings from the Indian Case," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(11), pages 1-51, November.
    5. Jaime Lara Lara & Fabian Mendez-Ramos, 2021. "Poverty vulnerability: The role of poverty lines in the post-pandemic era," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(4), pages 2690-2696.
    6. Cornia Giovanni Andrea, 2018. "Eradicating Poverty by the Year 2030: Implications for Income Inequality, Population Policies, Food Prices (and Faster Growth?)," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Iwona Bak & Malgorzata Kurtz, 2022. "Challenges on the Way to Implement Goals of Sustainable Development - Reducing Inequalities," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 263-276.
    8. Li, Hanbing & Jin, Xiaobin & McCormick, Barbara Prack & Tittonell, Pablo & Liu, Jing & Han, Bo & Sun, Rui & Zhou, Yinkang, 2023. "Analysis of the contribution of land consolidation to sustainable poverty alleviation under various natural conditions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Cust,James Frederick & Rivera Ballesteros,Alexis & Zeufack,Albert G., 2022. "The Dog that Didn’t Bark : The Missed Opportunity of Africa’s Resource Boom," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10120, The World Bank.
    10. Ian McCallum & Christopher Conrad Maximillian Kyba & Juan Carlos Laso Bayas & Elena Moltchanova & Matt Cooper & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Shonali Pachauri & Linda See & Olga Danylo & Inian Moorthy & Myr, 2022. "Estimating global economic well-being with unlit settlements," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    11. Di Yang & Weixin Luan & Jun Yang & Bing Xue & Xiaoling Zhang & Hui Wang & Feng Pian, 2022. "The contribution of data-driven poverty alleviation funds in achieving mid-21st-Century multidimensional poverty alleviation planning," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    12. Mark Brooks & Rattiya S. Lippe & Hermann Waibel, 2020. "Comprehensive data quality studies as a component of poverty assessments," TVSEP Working Papers wp-019, Leibniz Universitaet Hannover, Institute of Development and Agricultural Economics, Project TVSEP.
    13. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Stephan Klasen & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2022. "When Do We See Poverty Convergence?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(6), pages 1283-1301, December.
    14. Isnaini Isnaini & Yudhistira Nugraha & Niranjan Baisakh & Nono Carsono, 2023. "Toward Food Security in 2050: Gene Pyramiding for Climate-Smart Rice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-35, September.
    15. Jerónimo Puertas & María Bermúdez, 2020. "Development of a Global SDG Progress Index Aimed at “Leaving No One Behind”," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-13, May.
    16. Noha Emara & Mahmoud Mohieldin, 2020. "Financial inclusion and extreme poverty in the MENA region: a gap analysis approach," Review of Economics and Political Science, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(3), pages 207-230, July.
    17. McArthur, John W. & Rasmussen, Krista, 2019. "Classifying Sustainable Development Goal trajectories: A country-level methodology for identifying which issues and people are getting left behind," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Robert B. Zougmoré & Peter Läderach & Bruce M. Campbell, 2021. "Transforming Food Systems in Africa under Climate Change Pressure: Role of Climate-Smart Agriculture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, April.
    19. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Olha Danylo & Steffen Fritz & Martin Hofer & Homi Kharas & Juan Carlos Laso Bayas, 2020. "What do we know about poverty in North Korea?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, December.

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