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Land Use Transition and Regional Development Patterns Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities in China

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  • Xiaodong Zhang

    (Information and Communication Company of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Mingjie Yang

    (Information and Communication Company of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Rui Guo

    (Information and Communication Company of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Yaolong Li

    (School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Fanglei Zhong

    (School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract

This study evaluates the spatial–temporal evolution of land use intensity and regional development under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) through prefecture-level projections in China (2020–2050). This study integrates the population–development–environment model with back propagation (BP) neural networks, a supervised learning algorithm, to analyze how differentiated development trajectories reshape land systems. Results reveal distinct pathways: SSP5 (conventional development) and SSP1 (sustainability) achieve high-income thresholds by 2025/2028 with intensive land development, while SSP3 (fragmentation) risks stagnation post-2037 accompanied by inefficient land use. Spatial analysis identifies persistent dualism across the Hu Huanyong Line—83.6% of urban land expansion concentrates in eastern regions, whereas western areas exhibit 56% lower land productivity. By 2050, regional land use efficiency differentials (0.3–4.3% Gross Domestic Product/capita growth) highlight challenges in balancing urban agglomeration and ecological conservation. These findings provide empirical evidence for optimizing land allocation policies during China’s economic transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaodong Zhang & Mingjie Yang & Rui Guo & Yaolong Li & Fanglei Zhong, 2025. "Land Use Transition and Regional Development Patterns Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:3:p:454-:d:1597347
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenfang Pu & Mengba Liu & Anlu Zhang, 2025. "Does Industrial Green Transformation Really Lead to High Land Use Efficiency? Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, May.

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