IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i4p1653-d492922.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Miho Kamei

    (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Hayama 240-0115, Japan)

  • Alessio Mastrucci

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Bas J. van Ruijven

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

Abstract

The evolution of long-term sustainable societies is closely connected to the transformation of the physical built environment in which those societies operate. In this paper, we present a comprehensive set of narratives for the built environment in Japan, consistent with the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) framework, to assess the future evolution of the adaptation and mitigation challenges. We focus on the linkage between sustainability factors and human living environments including urban form, buildings, and basic infrastructures. We introduce a new, sixth narrative to the SSPs, an alternative interpretation of SSP1. Whereas the original SSP1 assumes high societal and environmental sustainability combined with relatively high economic growth, the SSP1 variant does not highly rely on economic growth and is oriented towards a lower and more locally oriented consumption lifestyle. Nature-based solutions are integrated and examined in the new SSP1 narrative, which is aligned with the adaptation to the digital era with freedom of location. Recent global crises such as climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate the transformation of societies. Therefore, this study attempts to imply the benefits and trade-offs of alternative pathways for the built environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Miho Kamei & Alessio Mastrucci & Bas J. van Ruijven, 2021. "A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:4:p:1653-:d:492922
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/4/1653/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/4/1653/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Easterlin, Richard A, 2001. "Income and Happiness: Towards an Unified Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(473), pages 465-484, July.
    3. T. Houet & C. Marchadier & G. Bretagne & P. Moine & Rahim Aguejdad & Vincent Viguie & M. Bonhomme & A. Lemonsu & P. Avner & Julia Hidalgo & V. Masson, 2016. "Combining narratives and modelling approaches to simulate fine scale and long-term urban growth scenarios for climate adaptation," Post-Print hal-01695084, HAL.
    4. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    5. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    6. Levesque, Antoine & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Baumstark, Lavinia & De Stercke, Simon & Grübler, Arnulf & Luderer, Gunnar, 2018. "How much energy will buildings consume in 2100? A global perspective within a scenario framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 514-527.
    7. Tsang, Eric W. K., 2014. "Old and New," Management and Organization Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 390-390, November.
    8. Daril A. Vilhena & Alexandre Antonelli, 2015. "A network approach for identifying and delimiting biogeographical regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, November.
    9. Bas Ruijven & Marc Levy & Arun Agrawal & Frank Biermann & Joern Birkmann & Timothy Carter & Kristie Ebi & Matthias Garschagen & Bryan Jones & Roger Jones & Eric Kemp-Benedict & Marcel Kok & Kasper Kok, 2014. "Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 481-494, February.
    10. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Guido Schmidt-Traub & Mariana Mazzucato & Dirk Messner & Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Johan Rockström, 2019. "Six Transformations to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 805-814, September.
    11. Sophie Devolder & Thomas Block, 2015. "Transition Thinking Incorporated: Towards a New Discussion Framework on Sustainable Urban Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-21, March.
    12. Céline Guivarch & O. Maury & L. Campling & H. Arrizabalaga & O. Aumont & L. Bopp & G. Merino & D. Squires & W. Cheung & M. Goujon & S. Lefort & F. Marsac & P. Monteagudo & R. Murtugudde & H. Österblom, 2017. "From shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to oceanic system pathways (OSPs): Building policy-relevant scenarios for global oceanic ecosystems and fisheries," Post-Print halshs-01654146, HAL.
    13. Bonnie L. Keeler & Perrine Hamel & Timon McPhearson & Maike H. Hamann & Marie L. Donahue & Kelly A. Meza Prado & Katie K. Arkema & Gregory N. Bratman & Kate A. Brauman & Jacques C. Finlay & Anne D. Gu, 2019. "Social-ecological and technological factors moderate the value of urban nature," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(1), pages 29-38, January.
    14. Detlef Vuuren & Timothy Carter, 2014. "Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 415-429, February.
    15. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    16. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kuiper, Jan Jurjen & Carpenter-Urquhart, Liam & Berbés-Blázquez, Marta & Rozas, Elisa Oteros & Fredström, Linna & Psiuk, Kinga & Savu, Codruța & Kautsky, Robert & Guerry, Anne & Carpenter, Stephen R., 2023. "Biosphere Futures: a database of social-ecological scenarios," SocArXiv v4ukj, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Spalding-Fecher, Randall. & Senatla, Mamahloko & Yamba, Francis & Lukwesa, Biness & Himunzowa, Grayson & Heaps, Charles & Chapman, Arthur & Mahumane, Gilberto & Tembo, Bernard & Nyambe, Imasiku, 2017. "Electricity supply and demand scenarios for the Southern African power pool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 403-414.
    2. Alison Rothwell & Brad Ridoutt & William Bellotti, 2016. "Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, December.
    3. O'Neill, Brian, 2016. "The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their extension and use in impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies," Conference papers 332808, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun & Upmanu Lall & Zhi-Fu Mi & Jun He & Yi-Ming Wei, 2016. "China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 169-181, November.
    5. Guillaume Rohat & Johannes Flacke & Hy Dao & Martin Maarseveen, 2018. "Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 619-636, December.
    6. Samuel Sellers & Kristie L. Ebi, 2017. "Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Kun Peng & Kuishuang Feng & Bin Chen & Yuli Shan & Ning Zhang & Peng Wang & Kai Fang & Yanchao Bai & Xiaowei Zou & Wendong Wei & Xinyi Geng & Yiyi Zhang & Jiashuo Li, 2023. "The global power sector’s low-carbon transition may enhance sustainable development goal achievement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    8. McManamay, Ryan A. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar & Allen-Dumas, Melissa, 2019. "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 880-900.
    9. Roberto Roson & Richard Damania, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity: an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," IEFE Working Papers 84, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    10. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. Juliette N. Rooney-Varga & Florian Kapmeier & John D. Sterman & Andrew P. Jones & Michele Putko & Kenneth Rath, 2020. "The Climate Action Simulation," Simulation & Gaming, , vol. 51(2), pages 114-140, April.
    12. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    13. Kemp-Benedict, Eric & Carlsen, Henrik & Kartha, Sivan, 2019. "Large-scale scenarios as ‘boundary conditions’: A cross-impact balance simulated annealing (CIBSA) approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 55-63.
    14. Filippo Pavanello & Enrica Cian & Marinella Davide & Malcolm Mistry & Talita Cruz & Paula Bezerra & Dattakiran Jagu & Sebastian Renner & Roberto Schaeffer & André F. P. Lucena, 2021. "Air-conditioning and the adaptation cooling deficit in emerging economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Fengler & Homi Kharas & Karim Bekhtiar & Michael Brottrager & Martin Hofer, 2018. "Will the Sustainable Development Goals be fulfilled? Assessing present and future global poverty," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    16. Parinaz Rashidi & Sopan D. Patil & Aafke M. Schipper & Rob Alkemade & Isabel Rosa, 2023. "Downscaling Global Land-Use Scenario Data to the National Level: A Case Study for Belgium," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
    17. Milan Ščasný & Emanuele Massetti & Jan Melichar & Samuel Carrara, 2015. "Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 383-415, October.
    18. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), "undated". "The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050," The Future of Food and Agriculture 319842, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    19. Palazzo, Amanda & Vervoort, Joost M. & Mason- D'Croz, Daniel & Rutting, Lucas & Havlik, Petr & Islam, Shahnila & Bayala, Jules & Kadi, Hame Kadi & Thornton, Philip & Zougmore, Robert, "undated". "Interpreting the Shared Socio-economic Pathways under Climate Change for the ECOWAS region through a stakeholder and multi-model process," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246970, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    20. Trotter, Ian Michael & Féres, José Gustavo & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & de Hollanda, Lavínia Rocha, 2015. "Simulating Brazilian Electricity Demand Under Climate Change Scenarios," Working Papers in Applied Economics 208689, Universidade Federal de Vicosa, Departamento de Economia Rural.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:4:p:1653-:d:492922. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.