Is extreme poverty going to end ? an analytical framework to evaluate progress in ending extreme poverty
The World Bank has recently adopted a target of reducing the proportion of population living below US$1.25 a day at 2005 international prices to 3 percent by 2030. This paper reviews different projection methods and estimates the global poverty rate of 2030 modifying Ravallion (2013)'s approach in that it introduces country-specific economic and population growth rates and takes into account the effect of changes in within-country inequality. This paper then identifies key obstacles to meeting the target and proposes a simple intermediate growth target under which the global poverty rate can be reduced to 3 percent by 2030. The findings of the analysis lend support to Basu (2013)'s argument that accelerating growth is not enough and sharing prosperity within and across countries is essential to end extreme poverty in one generation.
|Date of creation:||01 Jan 2014|
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- Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002.
" Growth Is Good for the Poor,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
- Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2010.
"The Developing World Is Poorer Than We Thought, but No Less Successful in the Fight Against Poverty,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1577-1625, November.
- Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 2008. "The developing world is poorer than we thought, but no less successful in the fight against poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4703, The World Bank.
- Camelia Minoiu & Shatakshee Dhongde, 2011.
"Global Poverty Estimates; A Sensitivity Analysis,"
IMF Working Papers
11/234, International Monetary Fund.
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