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The Future of Global Poverty in a Multi-Speed World: New Estimates of Scale and Location, 2010–2030

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  • Peter Edward
  • Andy Sumner

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Abstract

Smart decisions about where to focus poverty alleviation projects depend on accurate projections of where the bulk of the world’s poor will be living in 10, 20 years or more. So far, though, the picture has been murky. Data limitations and an abundance of modeling strategies complicate forecasts and contribute to wide discrepancies. In this working paper, Peter Edward and Andy Sumner introduce new model of growth, inequality, and poverty that allows comparison of a wide range of input assumptions. They find that it is plausible that $1.25 and $2 global poverty will reduce substantially by 2030 and the former – $1.25 poverty – could be very low by that time. However, this depends a lot on economic growth and inequality trends—up to almost an extra billion $2 poor people in one scenario. Where the world’s poor will reside also depends on inequality trends and the methods used to estimate poverty. The authors find little compelling evidence that global poverty will be based in low-income fragile state, and they suggest policymakers take into account the greater variety of country categories that will be home to the future of global poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2013. "The Future of Global Poverty in a Multi-Speed World: New Estimates of Scale and Location, 2010–2030," Working Papers 327, Center for Global Development.
  • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:327
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    File URL: http://www.cgdev.org/publication/future-global-poverty-multi-speed-world-new-estimates-scale-and-location-2010%E2%80%932030
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    Cited by:

    1. Gill,Indermit S. & Revenga,Ana L. & Zeballos,Christian, 2016. "Grow, invest, insure : a game plan to end extreme poverty by 2030," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7892, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    poverty; inequality; projections; methodology;

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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