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Policy Volatility and Growth

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  • Alberto Chong

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  • Mark Gradstein

Abstract

A growing body of recent macroeconomic evidence suggests that volatility is detrimental to economic growth. The channels through which volatility affects growth, however, are less clear; substantive evidence based on disaggregate data is almost non-existent. This paper offers a framework in which policy volatility has an adverse effect on firms` entry into productive industries, thereby affecting economic growth. Empirical support for this relationship is based on a detailed dataset of thousands of firms from some 80 countries. Additional evidence is provided on the channels through which volatility affects firm growth, showing that institutional obstacles magnify the effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Chong & Mark Gradstein, 2006. "Policy Volatility and Growth," Research Department Publications 4481, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4481
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2010. "Aid volatility and poverty traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 1-7.
    2. Cristia, Julian P., 2009. "Rising mortality and life expectancy differentials by lifetime earnings in the United States," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, pages 984-995.
    3. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2010. "Aid volatility and poverty traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 1-7.
    4. Carlos Scartascini & Ernesto Stein & Mariano Tommasi, 2008. "Political Institutions, State Capabilities and Public Policy - International Evidence," Research Department Publications 4608, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

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