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The rise of China in the international trade network: a community core detection approach

  • Zhen Zhu

    ()

    (IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies)

  • Federica Cerina

    (IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies)

  • Alessandro Chessa

    ()

    (IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies)

  • Guido Caldarelli

    ()

    (IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies)

  • Massimo Riccaboni

    ()

    (IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies)

Registered author(s):

    Theory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of static networks ranging from biology to computer and social sciences to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995-2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. Most importantly, we have a multilevel description of the evolution where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) tend to be correlated with the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members). In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a preferential attachment mechanism both inter- and intra- communities.

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    File URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/2192/1/EIC_WP_4_2014.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2014
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    Paper provided by IMT Institute for Advanced Studies Lucca in its series Working Papers with number 4/2014.

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    Length: 20 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2014
    Date of revision: Apr 2014
    Handle: RePEc:ial:wpaper:4/2014
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    Web page: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/

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    1. Massimo Riccaboni & Alessandro Rossi & Stefano Schiavo, 2011. "Global Networks of Trade and Bits," Department of Economics Working Papers 1108, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    2. Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2010. "BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version," Working Papers 2010-23, CEPII research center.
    3. Javier Reyes & Rossitza Wooster & Stuart Shirrell, 2014. "Regional Trade Agreements and the Pattern of Trade: A Networks Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1128-1151, 08.
    4. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Nobuaki Yamashita, 2005. "Production Fragmentation and Trade Integration: East Asia in a Global Context," Departmental Working Papers 2005-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    5. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2011. "The World Trade Network," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1417-1454, 08.
    6. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2005. "Product Fragmentation and Trade Patterns in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 4(3), pages 1-27, October.
    7. Georgios E. Chortareas & Theodore Pelagidis, 2004. "Trade flows: a facet of regionalism or globalisation?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 253-271, March.
    8. Carrere, Celine, 2006. "Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 223-247, February.
    9. Mansfield, Edward D. & Milner, Helen V., 1999. "The New Wave of Regionalism," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(03), pages 589-627, June.
    10. Arribas, Iván & Pérez, Francisco & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2009. "Measuring Globalization of International Trade: Theory and Evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 127-145, January.
    11. I. Tzekina & K. Danthi & D. Rockmore, 2008. "Evolution of community structure in the world trade web," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 541-545, June.
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