IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ial/wpaper/4-2014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The rise of China in the international trade network: a community core detection approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zhen Zhu

    () (IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies)

  • Federica Cerina

    (IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies)

  • Alessandro Chessa

    () (IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies)

  • Guido Caldarelli

    () (IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies)

  • Massimo Riccaboni

    () (IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies)

Abstract

Theory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of static networks ranging from biology to computer and social sciences to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995-2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. Most importantly, we have a multilevel description of the evolution where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) tend to be correlated with the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members). In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a preferential attachment mechanism both inter- and intra- communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhen Zhu & Federica Cerina & Alessandro Chessa & Guido Caldarelli & Massimo Riccaboni, 2014. "The rise of China in the international trade network: a community core detection approach," Working Papers 4/2014, IMT Institute for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Apr 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:ial:wpaper:4/2014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/2192/1/EIC_WP_4_2014.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mansfield, Edward D. & Milner, Helen V., 1999. "The New Wave of Regionalism," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(03), pages 589-627, June.
    2. Massimo Riccaboni & Alessandro Rossi & Stefano Schiavo, 2013. "Global networks of trade and bits," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 33-56, April.
    3. I. Tzekina & K. Danthi & D. Rockmore, 2008. "Evolution of community structure in the world trade web," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 63(4), pages 541-545, June.
    4. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2011. "The World Trade Network," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1417-1454, August.
    5. Georgios E. Chortareas & Theodore Pelagidis, 2004. "Trade flows: a facet of regionalism or globalisation?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 253-271, March.
    6. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2005. "Product Fragmentation and Trade Patterns in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 4(3), pages 1-27, Fall.
    8. Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Yamashita, Nobuaki, 2006. "Production fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in a global context," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 233-256, December.
    9. Arribas, Iván & Pérez, Francisco & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2009. "Measuring Globalization of International Trade: Theory and Evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 127-145, January.
    10. Javier Reyes & Rossitza Wooster & Stuart Shirrell, 2014. "Regional Trade Agreements and the Pattern of Trade: A Networks Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1128-1151, August.
    11. Carrere, Celine, 2006. "Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 223-247, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo Metulini & Massimo Riccaboni & Paolo Sgrignoli & Zhen Zhu, 2017. "The Indirect Effects of FDI on Trade: A Network Perspective," Working Papers 04/2017, IMT Institute for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Mar 2017.
    2. Merza, Ádám & London, András & Kiss, István Márton & Pelle, Anita & Dombi, József & Németh, Tamás, 2016. "A világkereskedelem hálózatelméleti vizsgálatának lehetőségeiről
      [The scope for analysis of world trade through network theory]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 79-98.
    3. Zhen Zhu & Greg Morrison & Michelangelo Puliga & Alessandro Chessa & Massimo Riccaboni, 2015. "The Similarity of Global Value Chains: A Network-Based Measure," Working Papers 9/2015, IMT Institute for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Sep 2015.
    4. Zhang, Shuhong & Wang, Lin & Liu, Zhixin & Wang, Xiaofan, 2016. "Evolution of international trade and investment networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 752-763.
    5. Li, Yuke & Wu, Tianhao & Marshall, Nicholas & Steinerberger, Stefan, 2017. "Extracting geography from trade data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 205-212.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Complex Networks; International Trade; Community Detection;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ial:wpaper:4/2014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Leonardo Mezzina). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/emimtit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.