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Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling for Tax Policy Analysis in Australia: Experience and Prospects

  • John Creedy

    ()

    (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne)

  • Guyonne Kalb

    ()

    (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)

This paper describes microsimulation modelling in non-technical terms and explains what can be achieved with microsimulation modelling in general, and the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS) in particular. The focus is on behavioural microsimulation modelling, which takes individuals’ labour supply responses into account when analysing tax and transfer reforms. Microsimulation models are built to replicate closely the considerable degree of heterogeneity observed in the population. Several examples of recent uses of MITTS are given and briefly described. Given the relatively recent development of behavioural microsimulation models, there are several opportunities for further extensions. For example, it would be valuable to allow for the demand side of labour, indicating whether new labour force participants are likely to find work or to allow for life-cycle dynamics, which are important to deal with population-ageing issues and female labour force participation.

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Paper provided by Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne in its series Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series with number wp2005n02.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2005n02
Contact details of provider: Postal: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia
Phone: +61 3 8344 2100
Fax: +61 3 8344 2111
Web page: http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/
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  8. John Creedy & Alan Duncan, 2001. "Aggregating Labour Supply And Feedback Effects In Microsimulation," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 823, The University of Melbourne.
  9. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n21, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  10. Callan, Tim, 2000. "Taxes, Transfers and Labour Market Responses: What can Microsimulation tell us?," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS36.
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  12. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2004. "Confidence Intervals for Policy Reforms in Behavioural Tax Microsimulation Modelling," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n32, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  13. Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2002. "Estimation of Wage Equations in Australia: Allowing for Censored Observations of Labour Supply," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n08, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  14. Alan Duncan & Mark N. Harris, 2001. "Simulating the Behavioural Effects of Welfare Reforms among Sole Parents in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n06, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  15. Imrohoroglu, Ayse, 1992. "The welfare cost of inflation under imperfect insurance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 79-91, January.
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  18. Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "Effects of the Australian New Tax System on Government Expenditure With and Without Behavioural Changes," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  19. Ebert, Udo, 1997. "Social Welfare When Needs Differ: An Axiomatic Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(254), pages 233-44, May.
  20. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2001. "The Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS)," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  21. Lixin Cai & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2004. "Accounting for Population Ageing in Tax Microsimulation Modelling by Survey Reweighting," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n26, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  22. Duncan, Alan & Giles, Christopher, 1996. "Labour Supply Incentives and Recent Family Credit Reforms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 142-55, January.
  23. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2003. "Flattening the Effective Marginal Tax Rate Structure in Australia: Policy Simulations Using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(2), pages 156-172.
  24. Richard Blundell & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2004. "Has 'In-Work' Benefit Reform Helped the Labor Market?," NBER Chapters, in: Seeking a Premier Economy: The Economic Effects of British Economic Reforms, 1980-2000, pages 411-460 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Cameron, Lisa & Creedy, John, 1995. "Indirect Tax Exemptions and the Distribution of Lifetime Income: A Simulation Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(212), pages 77-87, March.
  26. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "Income Distribution in Discrete Hours Behavioural Microsimulation Models: An Illustration of the Labour Supply and Distributional Effects of Social Transfers," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n23, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  27. Apps,Patricia Savage,Elizabeth, 1987. "Labour supply,Welfare rankings and the measurement of inequality," Discussion Paper Serie A 152, University of Bonn, Germany.
  28. Guyonne Kalb, 2002. "Estimation of Labour Supply Models for Four Separate Groups in the Australian Population," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n24, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  29. Atkinson, M E & Creedy, John & Knox, D M, 1996. "Alternative Retirement Income Strategies: A Cohort Analysis of Lifetime Redistribution," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(217), pages 97-106, June.
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  33. Robert A. Moffitt, 2003. "Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moff03-1, October.
  34. John Creedy & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "The Role of the Unit of Analysis in Tax Policy Reform Evaluations," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n28, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  35. Creedy, John & van de Ven, Justin, 2001. "Decomposing Redistributive Effects of Taxes and Transfers in Australia: Annual and Lifetime Measures," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 185-98, June.
  36. Creedy, J. & Van de Ven, J., 1998. "The Redistributive Effect of Selected Australian Taxes and Transfers on Annual and Lifetime Inequality," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 658, The University of Melbourne.
  37. Cathal O'Donoghue, 2001. "Dynamic Microsimulation: A Methodological Survey," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 4(2), December.
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