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Simulating the Behavioural Effects of Welfare Reforms among Sole Parents in Australia

  • Alan Duncan

    (School of Economics, University of Nottingham and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Mark N. Harris

    (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne and Economics Department, Central European University, Hungary)

This paper derives and estimates an econometric model of labour supply among sole parents in Australia, using modelling techniques which treat the labour supply decision as a utility maximising choice between a given number of discrete states. In estimation, we control for random preference heterogeneity as well as Þxed and search costs. Using our econometric model, we look at the e.ects of actual and hypothetical welfare policy reforms on the employment choices of sole parents in Australia. The microsimulation results presented in this paper use the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS), developed at Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.

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Paper provided by Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne in its series Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series with number wp2001n06.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2001n06
Contact details of provider: Postal: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia
Phone: +61 3 8344 2100
Fax: +61 3 8344 2111
Web page: http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/Email:


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  1. Callan, T. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1994. "Family labour supply and taxes in Ireland," Discussion Paper 1994-26, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Julian McCrae & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The labour market impact of the working families’ tax credit," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 75-103, March.
  3. M. Keane & R. Mofitt, 1995. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," Working Papers 95-4, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  4. C. Gourieroux & Jean-Jacques Laffont & A. Monfort, 1979. "Coherency Conditions In Simultaneous Linear Equation Models With Endogenous Switching Regimes," NBER Working Papers 0343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  6. Blundell, Richard & Ham, John & Meghir, Costas, 1987. "Unemployment and Female Labour Supply," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 44-64, Supplemen.
  7. Arrufat, Jose Luis & Zabalza, Antonio, 1986. "Female Labor Supply with Taxation, Random Preferences, and Optimization Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 47-63, January.
  8. Thomas Mroz, . "The Sensitivity of an Empirical Model of Married Women's Hours of Work to Economic and Statistical Assumptions," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 84-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  9. Michael Keating & Simon Lambert, 1998. "Improving Incentives: Changing the Interface of Tax and Social Security," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 31(3), pages 281-289.
  10. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Paul A. Ruud, 1993. "Classical Estimation Methods for LDV Models Using Simulation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1051, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Duncan, Alan & Weeks, Melvyn, 1997. "Behavioural tax microsimulation with finite hours choices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 619-626, April.
  12. Flood, Lennart & MaCurdy, Thomas, 1992. "Work disincentive effects of taxes: An empirical analysis of Swedish men," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 239-277, December.
  13. Duncan, Alan & Giles, Christopher, 1996. "Labour Supply Incentives and Recent Family Credit Reforms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 142-55, January.
  14. Daniel McFadden, 1987. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models Without Numerical Integration," Working papers 464, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  15. David Ingles, 1998. "Overcoming Anomalies in the Interaction of Tax and Social Security," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 31(3), pages 271-280.
  16. Blundell, Richard & Duncan, Alan & Meghir, Costas, 1992. "Taxation in Empirical Labour Supply Models: Lone Mothers in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 265-78, March.
  17. John Creedy & Alan S. Duncan, 2000. "Wage Functions for Demographic Groups in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 4(4), pages 296-316, December.
  18. Alan Duncan & Graham Stark, 2000. "A recursive algorithm to generate piecewise linear budget contraints," IFS Working Papers W00/11, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  19. Hausman, Jerry A, 1985. "The Econometrics of Nonlinear Budget Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1255-82, November.
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