IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iae/iaewps/wp2003n23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Income Distribution in Discrete Hours Behavioural Microsimulation Models: An Illustration of the Labour Supply and Distributional Effects of Social Transfers

Author

Listed:
  • John Creedy

    () (The Treasury, Wellington, New Zealand)

  • Guyonne Kalb

    () (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)

  • Rosanna Scutella

    (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)

Abstract

The distributional implications of an extreme hypothetical reform of the Australian tax-transfer system are examined using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator. This simulation model predicts labour supply using a probabilistic discrete hours approach. The analysis of the distribution of income is difficult because, even for a small sample with a modest range of labour supply points, the range of possible combinations over the sample is extremely large. This paper demonstrates the use of a pseudo income distribution, where the probability of a particular labour supply value occurring (standardised by the population size) is used to refer to a particular position in the pseudo income distribution. The superior performance of the pseudo approach compared to using the expected income or taking 10 draws from the possible set of distributions is clearly illustrated by the simulation example for sole parents, in which the whole social security system is abolished. The example shows further that even if sole parents could move freely into the labour force, they do not manage to compensate fully for their loss of income when no benefit payments are available.

Suggested Citation

  • John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "Income Distribution in Discrete Hours Behavioural Microsimulation Models: An Illustration of the Labour Supply and Distributional Effects of Social Transfers," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n23, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  • Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2003n23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/working_paper_series/wp2003n23.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
    2. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert, 1998. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 553-589, August.
    3. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    4. Michael Gerfin & Robert E. Leu, 2003. "The Impact of In-Work Benefits on Poverty and Household Labour Supply. A simulation study for Switzerland," Diskussionsschriften dp0304, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    5. Hoynes, Hilary Williamson, 1996. "Welfare Transfers in Two-Parent Families: Labor Supply and Welfare Participation under AFDC-UP," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 295-332, March.
    6. Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2002. "Estimation of Wage Equations in Australia: Allowing for Censored Observations of Labour Supply," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n08, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    7. Creedy, John & Duncan, Alan, 2002. " Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-39, February.
    8. Guyonne Kalb, 2002. "Estimation of Labour Supply Models for Four Separate Groups in the Australian Population," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n24, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    9. John Creedy & Alan S. Duncan & Mark Harris & Rosanna Scutella, 2002. "Microsimulation Modelling of Taxation and the Labour Market," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2796.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Franziska Gassmann & Cecile Cherrier & Andrés Mideros Mora & Pierre Mohnen, 2013. "Making the Investment Case for Social Protection: Methodological challenges with lessons learnt from a recent study in Cambodia," Papers inwopa694, Innocenti Working Papers.
    2. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling With the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator(MITTS) : Uses and Extensions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 932, The University of Melbourne.
    3. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling for Tax Policy Analysis in Australia: Experience and Prospects," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 73-110, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2003n23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sheri Carnegie). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/mimelau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.