IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ozl/journl/v8y2005i1p73-110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling for Tax Policy Analysis in Australia: Experience and Prospects

Author

Listed:
  • John Creedy

    () (University of Melbourne)

  • Guyonne Kalb

    (University of Melbourne)

Abstract

This paper describes microsimulation modelling in non-technical terms and explains what can be achieved with microsimulation modelling in general, and the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS) in particular. The focus is on behavioural microsimulation modelling, which takes individuals’ labour supply responses into account when analysing tax and transfer reforms. Microsimulation models are built to replicate closely the considerable degree of heterogeneity observed in the population. Several examples of recent uses of MITTS are given and briefly described. Given the relatively recent development of behavioural microsimulation models, there are several opportunities for further extensions. For example, it would be valuable to allow for the demand side of labour, indicating whether new labour force participants are likely to find work or to allow for life-cycle dynamics, which are important to deal with population-ageing issues and female labour force participation.

Suggested Citation

  • John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling for Tax Policy Analysis in Australia: Experience and Prospects," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 73-110, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:8:y:2005:i:1:p:73-110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lixin Cai & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Accounting For Population Ageing In Tax Microsimulation Modelling By Survey Reweighting ," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 18-37, March.
    2. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "Income Distribution in Discrete Hours Behavioural Microsimulation Models: An Illustration of the Labour Supply and Distributional Effects of Social Transfers," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n23, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Duncan, Alan & Harris, Mark N, 2002. "Simulating the Behavioural Effects of Welfare Reforms among Sole Parents in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 264-276, September.
    4. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Julian McCrae & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The labour market impact of the working families’ tax credit," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 75-103, March.
    5. Imrohoroglu, Ayse, 1992. "The welfare cost of inflation under imperfect insurance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 79-91, January.
    6. Sefton, J. A., 2000. "A solution method for consumption decisions in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 1097-1119, June.
    7. Hansen, Gary D & Imrohoroglu, Ayse, 1992. "The Role of Unemployment Insurance in an Economy with Liquidity Constraints and Moral Hazard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 118-142, February.
    8. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695 Elsevier.
    9. Apps, Patricia & Savage, Elizabeth, 1989. "Labour supply, welfare rankings and the measurement of inequality," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 335-364, August.
    10. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
    11. John Creedy & Alan Duncan, 2005. "Aggregating Labour Supply and Feedback Effects in Microsimulation," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(3), pages 277-290, September.
    12. Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2002. "Estimation of Wage Equations in Australia: Allowing for Censored Observations of Labour Supply," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n08, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    13. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 697-734, December.
    14. Apps, Patricia & Savage, Elizabeth, 1989. "Labour supply, welfare rankings and the measurement of inequality," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 335-364, August.
    15. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    16. Banks, James & Blundell, Richard & Lewbel, Arthur, 1996. "Tax Reform and Welfare Measurement: Do We Need Demand System Estimation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1227-1241, September.
    17. Cameron, Lisa & Creedy, John, 1995. "Indirect Tax Exemptions and the Distribution of Lifetime Income: A Simulation Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(212), pages 77-87, March.
    18. Ebert, Udo, 1997. "Social Welfare When Needs Differ: An Axiomatic Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(254), pages 233-244, May.
    19. Richard Blundell & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2004. "Has 'In-Work' Benefit Reform Helped the Labor Market?," NBER Chapters,in: Seeking a Premier Economy: The Economic Effects of British Economic Reforms, 1980-2000, pages 411-460 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. V. Joseph Hotz, 2003. "The Earned Income Tax Credit," NBER Chapters,in: Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, pages 141-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Klevmarken, N. A., 1997. "Modelling Behavioural Response in EUROMOD," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9720, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    22. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-1383, December.
    23. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2003. "Flattening the Effective Marginal Tax Rate Structure in Australia: Policy Simulations Using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(2), pages 156-172.
    24. Cathal O'Donoghue, 2001. "Dynamic Microsimulation: A Methodological Survey," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 4(2), December.
    25. John Creedy & Alan S. Duncan & Mark Harris & Rosanna Scutella, 2002. "Microsimulation Modelling of Taxation and the Labour Market," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2796.
    26. Robert A. Moffitt, 2003. "Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moff03-1, April.
    27. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2007. "Confidence Intervals For Policy Reforms In Behavioural Tax Microsimulation Modelling," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 37-65, January.
    28. Blundell, Richard & Ham, John & Meghir, Costas, 1987. "Unemployment and Female Labour Supply," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 44-64, Supplemen.
    29. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2001. "The Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS)," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    30. Creedy, J. & Van de Ven, J., 1998. "The Redistributive Effect of Selected Australian Taxes and Transfers on Annual and Lifetime Inequality," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 658, The University of Melbourne.
    31. Creedy, John & van de Ven, Justin, 2001. "Decomposing Redistributive Effects of Taxes and Transfers in Australia: Annual and Lifetime Measures," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 185-198, June.
    32. Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "Effects of the Australian New Tax System on Government Expenditure With and Without Behavioural Changes," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    33. Atkinson, M E & Creedy, John & Knox, D M, 1996. "Alternative Retirement Income Strategies: A Cohort Analysis of Lifetime Redistribution," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(217), pages 97-106, June.
    34. Guyonne Kalb, 2002. "Estimation of Labour Supply Models for Four Separate Groups in the Australian Population," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n24, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    35. John Creedy & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "The Role of the Unit of Analysis in Tax Policy Reform Evaluations," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n28, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    36. Duncan, Alan & Giles, Christopher, 1996. "Labour Supply Incentives and Recent Family Credit Reforms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 142-155, January.
    37. Denise J. Doiron, 2004. "Welfare Reform and the Labour Supply of Lone Parents in Australia: A Natural Experiment Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 157-176, June.
    38. Callan, Tim, 2000. "Taxes, Transfers and Labour Market Responses: What can Microsimulation tell us?," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS36.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eme:ceapzz:s0573-855520140000293006 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Robert Breunig & Deborah A. Cobb-Clark & Xiaodong Gong, 2008. "Improving the Modelling of Couples' Labour Supply," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(267), pages 466-485, December.
    3. Christian Dreger & Manuel Artís & Rosina Moreno & Raúl Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2007. "Study on the feasibility of a tool to measure the macroeconomic impact of structural reforms," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 272, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. van Sonsbeek, J.M. & Gradus, R.H.J.M., 2006. "A microsimulation analysis of the 2006 regime change in the Dutch disability scheme," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 427-456, May.
    5. Alan S Duncan & Mark N Harris & Anthony Harris & Eugenio Zucchelli, 2013. "The Influence of Psychological Well-being, Ill Health and Health Shocks on Single Parents' Labour Supply," Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Working Paper series WP1307, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School.
    6. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2014. "Labour Supply Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis,in: Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 167-221 Emerald Publishing Ltd.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Household (effects on labor supply) Social Security and Public Pensions General Welfare; Basic Needs; Living Standards; Quality of Life; Happiness;

    JEL classification:

    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:8:y:2005:i:1:p:73-110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alan Duncan). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/becurau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.