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Vermittlungsgutscheine: Zwischenergebnisse der Begleitforschung 2004 : Teil 3: Mikroökonomische Wirkungsanalyse

  • Heinze, Anja
  • Pfeiffer, Friedhelm
  • Spermann, Alexander
  • Winterhager, Henrik

"Aufbauend auf den Mikrodaten werden in dem Forschungsbericht die Determinanten der Ausgabe von Vermittlungsgutscheinen und deren direkte Wirkungen auf der Individualebene untersucht. Die Analysen legen den Schluss nahe, dass die Gruppe der Arbeitslosen, die einen Vermittlungsgutschein erhalten haben, keine Zufallsauswahl aus der Gruppe aller Arbeitslosen ist. Es scheinen somit Selektionsmechanismen zu existieren, die auch für den Erfolg der Vermittlungsgutscheine relevant sind. In der Mikroanalyse wird die Selektivität der Ausgabe berücksichtigt. Dazu werden nicht-parametrische Matching-Verfahren verwendet, die auf der Annahme der bedingten Unabhängigkeit (CIA) beruhen. Für die Vermittlungsgutscheine, die im Mai und Juni 2003 ausgegeben wurden, wird die Wahrscheinlichkeit der Einmündung in eine reguläre Beschäftigung innerhalb von sechs Monaten abgeschätzt. Der für die Gruppe der Arbeitslosen, die einen Vermittlungsgutschein erhalten haben, geschätzte durchschnittliche Maßnahmeeffekt beträgt den Ergebnissen zu Folge 4,8 Prozentpunkte in Ostdeutschland und 3,7 Prozentpunkte in Westdeutschland. Die ermittelten Maßnahmeeffekte sind für Arbeitslose mit kurzer Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer, deren Wert der Vermittlungsgutscheine bei 1.500 EURO liegt, höher als für Arbeitslose mit längerer Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer, deren Wert der Vermittlungsgutscheine bis zu 2.500 EURO betragen kann." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB-Forschungsbericht with number 200503.

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Length: 83 pages
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iab:iabfob:200503
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  1. Almus, Matthias & Egeln, Jürgen & Lechner, Michael & Pfeiffer, Friedhelm & Spengler, Hannes, 1998. "Die gemeinnützige Arbeitnehmerüberlassung in Rheinland-Pfalz: Eine ökonometrische Analyse des Wiedereingliederungserfolgs," ZEW Discussion Papers 98-36, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. James Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1017-1098, September.
  3. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 2002. "Propensity Score-Matching Methods For Nonexperimental Causal Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 151-161, February.
  4. Heckman, James J. & Robb, Richard Jr., 1985. "Alternative methods for evaluating the impact of interventions : An overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 239-267.
  5. Lechner, Michael, 1999. "Earnings and Employment Effects of Continuous Off-the-Job Training in East Germany after Unification," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 74-90, January.
  6. Michael Lechner, 2005. "Some practical issues in the evaluation of heterogeneous labour market programmes by matching methods," Labor and Demography 0505006, EconWPA.
  7. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E, 1997. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 605-54, October.
  8. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September.
  9. A. Smith, Jeffrey & E. Todd, Petra, 2005. "Does matching overcome LaLonde's critique of nonexperimental estimators?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 305-353.
  10. Dehejia, Rajeev, 2005. "Practical propensity score matching: a reply to Smith and Todd," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 355-364.
  11. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 1998. "Causal Effects in Non-Experimental Studies: Re-Evaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs," NBER Working Papers 6586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April.
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