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Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks

Author

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  • Nikolaus Hautsch
  • Julia Schaumburg
  • Melanie Schienle

Abstract

We propose a methodology for forecasting the systemic impact of financial institutions in interconnected systems. Utilizing a five-year sample including the 2008/9 financial crisis, we demonstrate how the approach can be used for timely systemic risk monitoring of large European banks and insurance companies. We predict firms’ systemic relevance as the marginal impact of individual downside risks on systemic distress. The so-called systemic risk betas account for a company’s position within the network of financial interdependencies in addition to its balance sheet characteristics and its exposure towards general market conditions. Relying only on publicly available daily market data, we determine time-varying systemic risk networks, and forecast systemic relevance on a quarterly basis. Our empirical findings reveal time-varying risk channels and firms’ specific roles as risk transmitters and/or risk recipients.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2013. "Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-008, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:65-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kay Giesecke & Baeho Kim, 2011. "Systemic Risk: What Defaults Are Telling Us," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1387-1405, August.
    3. Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2015. "Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 685-738.
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    5. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
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    8. Bernd Schwaab & Andre Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2010. "Systemic Risk Diagnostics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-104/2/DSF 2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 29 Nov 2010.
    9. White, Halbert & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Manganelli, Simone, 2010. "VAR for VaR: measuring systemic risk using multivariate regression quantiles," MPRA Paper 35372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    12. Viral V. Acharya, 2010. "Measuring systemic risk," Proceedings 1140, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Barigozzi & Christian Brownlees, 2013. "Nets: Network Estimation for Time Series," Working Papers 723, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    2. repec:cup:jfinqa:v:53:y:2018:i:03:p:1371-1390_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2015. "Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 685-738.
    4. Paolo Giudici & Shatha Hashem, 2015. "Systemic risk of Islamic Banks," DEM Working Papers Series 103, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    5. Kleinow, Jacob & Moreira, Fernando, 2016. "Systemic risk among European banks: A copula approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-42.
    6. repec:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:9:p:1417-1433 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. van de Leur, Michiel C.W. & Lucas, André & Seeger, Norman J., 2017. "Network, market, and book-based systemic risk rankings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 84-90.
    8. Billio, Monica & Caporin, Massimiliano & Panzica, Roberto Calogero & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2017. "The impact of network connectivity on factor exposures, asset pricing and portfolio diversification," SAFE Working Paper Series 166, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    9. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2017. "A network analysis of the volatility of high dimensional financial series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(3), pages 581-605, April.
    10. Craig, Ben R. & Saldias Zambrana, Martin, 2016. "Spatial Dependence and Data-Driven Networks of International Banks," Working Paper 1627, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Jacob Kleinow & Tobias Nell, 2015. "Determinants of systemically important banks: the case of Europe," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 446-476, November.
    12. Rebekka Gätjen & Melanie Schienle, 2015. "Measuring Connectedness of Euro Area Sovereign Risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-019, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    13. Poeschel, Friedrich, 2012. "Assortative matching through signals," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62061, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Franziska L Ohnsorge & Marcin Wolski & Yuanyan S Zhang, 2014. "Safe Havens, Feedback Loops, and Shock Propagation in Global Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 14/81, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Betz, Frank & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schienle, Melanie, 2016. "Systemic risk spillovers in the European banking and sovereign network," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 206-224.
    16. repec:eee:ememar:v:35:y:2018:i:c:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:eee:finsta:v:35:y:2018:i:c:p:226-241 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Sullivan HUE & Yannick LUCOTTE & Sessi TOKPAVI, 2018. "Measuring Network Systemic Risk Contributions: A Leave-one-out Approach," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2608, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    19. repec:eee:ememar:v:35:y:2018:i:c:p:190-206 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:4:p:958-969 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Geraci, Marco Valerio & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring Interconnectedness between Financial Institutions with Bayesian Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(03), pages 1371-1390, June.
    22. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2017. "Forecasting multidimensional tail risk at short and long horizons," Bank of England working papers 660, Bank of England.
    23. Marco Valerio Geraci & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2015. "Measuring Interconnectedness between Financial Institutions with Bayesian Time-Varying VARS," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-51, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    24. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2015. "Networks, Dynamic Factors, and the Volatility Analysis of High-Dimensional Financial Series," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    25. Bonaccolto, Giovanni & Caporin, Massimiliano & Panzica, Roberto Calogero, 2017. "Estimation and model-based combination of causality networks," SAFE Working Paper Series 165, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting systemic risk contributions; time-varying systemic risk network; model selection with regularization in quantiles;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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