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Non-constant Hazard Function and Inflation Dynamics

  • Fang Yao
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    This paper explores implications of nominal rigidity characterized by a non-constant hazard function for aggregate dynamics. I derive the NKPC under an arbitrary hazard function and parameterize it with the Weibull duration model. The resulting Phillips curve involves lagged inflation and lagged expectations. It nests the Calvo NKPC as a limiting case in the sense that the effects of both terms are canceled out under the constant-hazard assumption. Furthermore, I find lagged inflation always has negative coefficients, thereby making it impossible to interpret inflation persistence as intrinsic. The numerical evaluation shows that the increasing hazard function leads to hump-shaped impulse responses of in‡ation to monetary shocks, and output leads inflation.

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    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2009-030.pdf
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    Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2009-030.

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    Length: 25 pages
    Date of creation: May 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-030
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    8. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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    10. Lorenz Goette & Rudolf Minsch & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Micro Evidence on the Adjustment of Sticky-Price Goods: It's How Often, not How Much," Discussion Papers 05-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    11. James Costain & Anton Nakov, 2011. "Price Adjustments in a General Model of State‐Dependent Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 385-406, 03.
    12. Ben Eden & Jeff Campbell, 2004. "Rigid Prices: Evidence from US scanner data," 2004 Meeting Papers 461, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Álvarez, Luis J., 2007. "What Do Micro Price Data Tell Us on the Validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-46, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    14. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    15. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2010. "Linear rational-expectations models with lagged expectations: A synthetic method," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 984-1002, May.
    16. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Richard Mash, 2004. "Optimising microfoundations for observed inflation persistence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 60, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
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