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Non-constant Hazard Function and Inflation Dynamics

  • Fang Yao
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    This paper explores implications of nominal rigidity characterized by a non-constant hazard function for aggregate dynamics. I derive the NKPC under an arbitrary hazard function and parameterize it with the Weibull duration model. The resulting Phillips curve involves lagged inflation and lagged expectations. It nests the Calvo NKPC as a limiting case in the sense that the effects of both terms are canceled out under the constant-hazard assumption. Furthermore, I find lagged inflation always has negative coefficients, thereby making it impossible to interpret inflation persistence as intrinsic. The numerical evaluation shows that the increasing hazard function leads to hump-shaped impulse responses of in‡ation to monetary shocks, and output leads inflation.

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    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2009-030.pdf
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    Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2009-030.

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    Length: 25 pages
    Date of creation: May 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-030
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    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November.
    2. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Benjamin Eden, 2014. "Rigid Prices: Evidence From U.S. Scanner Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 423-442, 05.
    3. Kevin D. Sheedy, 2007. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0837, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Richard Mash, 2006. "Optimising Microfoundations for Inflation Persistence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 457, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Pete Klenow & Ben Malin & Mark Bils, 2010. "Reset Price Inflation and the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 1079, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Alvarez González, Luis Julián, 2008. "What Do Micro Price Data Tell Us on the Validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2, pages 1-36.
    7. James Costain & Anton Nakov, 2011. "Price Adjustments in a General Model of State‐Dependent Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 385-406, 03.
    8. Götte, Lorenz & Minsch, Rudolf & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2005. "Micro Evidence on the Adjustment of Sticky-Price Goods: It's How Often, Not How Much," CEPR Discussion Papers 5364, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Fougere, Denis & Le Bihan, Herve & Sevestre, Patrick, 2007. "Heterogeneity in Consumer Price Stickiness: A Microeconometric Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 247-264, July.
    10. Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2007. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models with Lagged Expectations Quickly and Easily," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-069, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    11. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Alvarez & Herve Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lunnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Price Changes in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 171-192, Spring.
    12. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February.
    13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    14. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    15. Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "Sticky prices, marginal cost, and the behavior of inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 29-48.
    16. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Richard Mash, 2004. "Optimising microfoundations for observed inflation persistence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 60, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
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