Growth Forecasts, Belief Manipulation and Capital Markets
We analyze how a benevolent, privately-informed government agency would optimally release information about the economy's growth rate when the agents hold heterogeneous beliefs. We model two types of agents: "trusting" and "distrustful." The former has a prior that is identical to that of the government agency, whereas the latter has a prior that differs from that of the government agency. We identify both "revealing" and "nonrevealing" equilibria and demonstrate that the "nonrevealing" equilibria can dominate the "revealing" equilibria in terms of ex-post social welfare.
|Date of creation:||31 Jul 2010|
|Date of revision:||30 May 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden|
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009.
"Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1187-1215, 06.
- Laura Veldkamp & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," 2005 Meeting Papers 78, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Laura Veldkamp & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2004. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," Working Papers 04-32, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2007. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 13366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006.
"Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts,"
CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2004. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 210, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Farrell, Joseph & Gibbons, Robert, 1989.
"Cheap Talk with Two Audiences,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1214-23, December.
- Facundo Albornoz & Joan Esteban & Paolo Vanin, 2014. "Market Distortions And Government Transparency," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 200-222, 02.
- Nils H. Hakansson & J. Gregory Kunkel & James A. Ohlson., 1981.
"Sufficient and Necessary Conditions for Information to Have Social Value in Pure Exchange,"
Research Program in Finance Working Papers
122, University of California at Berkeley.
- Hakansson, Nils H & Kunkel, J Gregory & Ohlson, James A, 1982. " Sufficient and Necessary Conditions for Information to Have Social Value in Pure Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1169-81, December.
- Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 118-120.
- Green, Jerry R, 1981. "Value of Information with Sequential Futures Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 335-58, March.
- Colin M. Campbell, 2002.
"Blackwell's Ordering and Public Information,"
Departmental Working Papers
200206, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Kohei Kawamura, 2011. "A Model of Public Consultation: Why is Binary Communication so Common?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(553), pages 819-842, 06.
- Edward E. Schlee, 2001. "The Value of Information in Efficient Risk-Sharing Arrangements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 509-524, June.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
- Crawford, Vincent P & Sobel, Joel, 1982.
"Strategic Information Transmission,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1431-51, November.
- Stein, Jeremy C, 1989. "Cheap Talk and the Fed: A Theory of Imprecise Policy Announcements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 32-42, March.
- Matthews, Steven A. & Okuno-Fujiwara, Masahiro & Postlewaite, Andrew, 1991.
"Refining cheap-talk equilibria,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 247-273, December.
- repec:hoo:wpaper:e-89-7 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ng, David S., 1975. "Information accuracy and social welfare under homogeneous beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 53-70, March.
- Anat R. Admati & Paul Pfleiderer, 2004. "Broadcasting Opinions with an Overconfident Sender," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 467-498, 05.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
- Marshall, John M, 1974. "Private Incentives and Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 373-90, June.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Jennifer La'O, 2011. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Informational Frictions," NBER Working Papers 17525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hirshleifer, Jack, 1971. "The Private and Social Value of Information and the Reward to Inventive Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 561-74, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2010_008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Edgerton)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.