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Growth Forecasts, Belief Manipulation and Capital Markets

Author

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  • Lundtofte, Frederik

    () (Department of Economics, Lund University)

  • Leoni, Patrick

    () (EUROMED Management)

Abstract

We analyze how a benevolent, privately-informed government agency would optimally release information about the economy's growth rate when the agents hold heterogeneous beliefs. We model two types of agents: "trusting" and "distrustful." The former has a prior that is identical to that of the government agency, whereas the latter has a prior that differs from that of the government agency. We identify both "revealing" and "nonrevealing" equilibria and demonstrate that the "nonrevealing" equilibria can dominate the "revealing" equilibria in terms of ex-post social welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Lundtofte, Frederik & Leoni, Patrick, 2010. "Growth Forecasts, Belief Manipulation and Capital Markets," Working Papers 2010:8, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 30 May 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2010_008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Paredes-Lodeiro, Joan & Pérez, Javier J & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2015. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10553, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social welfare; information; forecasting; asset pricing; heterogeneous beliefs;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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