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Economic Growth across Space and Time: subprovincial Evidence from Mainland China


  • Declan Curran


  • Michael Funke


  • Jue Wang



We present a new composite leading indicator of economic activity in mainland China, estimated using a dynamic factor model. Our leading indicator is constructed from three series: exports, a real estate climate index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index. These series are found to share a common, unobservable element from which our indicator can be identified. This indicator is then incorporated into out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecasts of Chinese GDP growth. Recursive out-of-sample accuracy tests indicate that the small scale factor model approach leads to successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting Chinese business conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Declan Curran & Michael Funke & Jue Wang, 2007. "Economic Growth across Space and Time: subprovincial Evidence from Mainland China," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20710, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20710

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0386-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Funke, Michael & Yu, Hao, 2009. "Economic growth across Chinese provinces : insearch of innovation-driven gains," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    More about this item


    Regional Economic Growth; China;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes


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