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Does VAT reduce the instability of tax revenues?

  • Christian Ebeke

    (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

  • Hélène Ehrhart

    (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

In this study, we examine whether or not the adoption of value-added tax (VAT) in developing countries is an effective way of stabilising tax revenues. Using a large panel of 103 developing countries observed over 1980-2008 and several alternative estimation methods in order to deal with the self-selection bias and the endogeneity issue inherent in VAT adoption, we found robust evidence that the presence of VAT leads to significantly lower tax revenue instability. On average, countries with VAT experience 40-50% less tax revenue instability than countries which do not have a VAT system. These effects decrease with the level of economic development and the openness of trade.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00617272.

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Date of creation: 20 Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00617272
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  1. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
  2. Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Volatility and development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3743, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Keen, Michael & Lockwood, Ben, 2010. "The value added tax: Its causes and consequences," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 138-151, July.
  4. Clarete, Ramon L. & Whalley, John, 1987. "Comparing the marginal welfare costs of commodity and trade taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 357-362, August.
  5. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2005. "The collection efficiency of the value added tax: theory and international evidence," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt42d103zh, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  6. Keen, Michael & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2002. "Coordinating tariff reduction and domestic tax reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 489-507, March.
  7. Christian Ebeke & Helene Ehrhart, 2012. "Tax Revenue Instability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and Remedies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 21(1), pages 1-27, January.
  8. M. Shahe Emran & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2002. "On Selective Indirect Tax Reform in Developing Countries," International Trade 0210003, EconWPA.
  9. Hatzipanayotou, Panos & Michael, Michael S. & Miller, Stephen M., 1994. "Win-win indirect tax reform : A modest proposal," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 147-151.
  10. Jean-Louis Combes & Christian Ebeke, 2011. "Remittances and Household Consumption Instability in Developing Countries," Working Papers halshs-00552245, HAL.
  11. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  12. Michael, Michael S. & Hatzipanayotou, Panos & Miller, Stephen M., 1993. "Integrated reforms of tariffs and consumption taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 417-428, October.
  13. Agha, Ali & Haughton, Jonathan, 1996. "Designing VAT Systems: Some Efficiency Considerations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 303-08, May.
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