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Robust structural determinants of public deficits in developing countries

Author

Listed:
  • Blaise Gnimassoun

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UPN - Université Paris Nanterre)

  • Isabelle Do Santos

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Many macroeconomic, institutional, demographic, social and political variables have been proposed by previous studies as significant determinants of public deficits in developing countries. This paper asks whether their estimated impact on public deficits is robust under thousands of possible alternative specifications. We deal with model uncertainty using Sala-i-Martin's Extreme Bound Analysis. Our results clearly show that external shocks, the debt ratio, financial development, the level of democracy and government control over expenditures are robustly associated with fiscal deficits. Public deficits are lower in countries which provide better stability of public expenditure in the face of revenue instability and which are less exposed to negative external shocks. In contrast, fiscal deficits increase with the debt ratio, financial development and the level of democracy. The relative importance of external shocks in all the regressions argues in favour of greater economic diversification in order to mitigate the impact of negative shocks on public finances.

Suggested Citation

  • Blaise Gnimassoun & Isabelle Do Santos, 2021. "Robust structural determinants of public deficits in developing countries," Post-Print hal-03165519, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03165519
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1824063
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    Cited by:

    1. Ateba Boyomo Henri Aurélien & Mougnol A. Ekoula Herve William & Song Jacques Simon, 2024. "Migrant Remittances and Conflicts in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Effects and Transmission Channels," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2361-2406, December.
    2. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2021. "What has been the impact of COVID-19 on debt? Turning a wave into a tsunami," CAMA Working Papers 2021-99, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Ablam Estel Apeti & Bao-We-Wal Bambe & Aguima Aime Bernard Lompo, 2023. "Determinants of public sector efficiency: a panel database from a stochastic frontier analysis," Post-Print hal-04189811, HAL.
    4. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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