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What has been the impact of COVID-19 on debt? Turning a wave into a tsunami

Author

Listed:
  • M. Ayhan Kose
  • Peter Nagle
  • Franziska Ohnsorge
  • Naotaka Sugawara

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on debt, puts recent debt developments and prospects in historical context, and analyzes new policy challenges associated with debt resolution. The paper reports three main results. First, even before the pandemic, a rapid build-up of debt in emerging market and developing economies -dubbed the "fourth wave" of debt - had been underway. Because of the sharp increase in debt during the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020, the fourth wave of debt has turned into a tsunami and become even more dangerous. Second, five years after past global recessions, global government debt continued to increase. In light of this historical record, and given large financing gaps and significant investment needs in many countries, debt levels will likely continue to rise in the near future. Third, debt resolution has become more complicated because of a highly fragmented creditor base, a lack of transparency in debt reporting, and a legacy stock of government debt without collective action clauses. National policy makers and the global community need to act rapidly and forcefully ensure that the fourth wave does not end with a string of debt crises in emerging market and developing economies as earlier debt waves did.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Ayhan Kose & Peter Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2021. "What has been the impact of COVID-19 on debt? Turning a wave into a tsunami," CAMA Working Papers 2021-99, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-99
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-08/99_2021_Kose_Nagle_Ohnsorge_Sugawara.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Adarov, Amat & Guénette, Justin Damien & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2022. "Another legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic: Income divergence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 842-854.
    2. Asad Nisar & Rabia Rafique, 2025. "Fiscal strategies for sustainable debt management in developing economies: dynamic common correlated effects approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1-31, August.
    3. Manzano Quiroga Jeremías Angel, 2025. "No Pay, No Debt: Domestic Costs of Sovereign Defaults," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4817, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    4. Miaomiao Tao & Jamel Saadaoui & Emilson Silva, 2025. "How Robust Is the Link Between Growth and Fiscal Consolidations Amid Uncertainties? A Reassessment for Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2025.7, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    5. Valencia, Oscar & Gamboa-Arbeláez, Juliana & Sánchez, Gustavo, 2024. "Debt erosion: Asymmetric response to demand and supply shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    6. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1113-1131.
    7. ROUKANAS A. Spyros & VITZILEOS Vaggelis, 2023. "The Response Of International Financial Institutions To The Covid-19 Crisis," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 18(2), pages 257-269, August.
    8. Cronin, David & McGowan, Kieran, 2023. "Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries," Papers WP756, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2022. "Global Stagflation," CAMA Working Papers 2022-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Sandra Bernardo & Maria Luísa Vasconcelos & Fátima Rocha, 2024. "The Widening of the North–South Divide: Debt Sustainability in a World Weakened by COVID-19," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-27, February.
    11. Olesea Speian, 2024. "Debt Dynamics under Uncertainty: Evidence from the Republic of Moldova," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 50-63.
    12. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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