IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03562318.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic Regret Avoidance

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Fioretti

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alexander Vostroknutov

    (Maastricht University [Maastricht])

  • Giorgio Coricelli

    (USC - University of Southern California)

Abstract

In a stock market experiment, we examine how regret avoidance influences the decision to sell an asset while its price changes over time. Participants know beforehand whether they will observe the future prices after they sell the asset or not. Without future prices, participants are affected only by regret about previously observed high prices (past regret), but when future prices are available, they also avoid regret about expected after-sale high prices (future regret). Moreover, as the relative sizes of past and future regret change, participants dynamically switch between them. This demonstrates how multiple reference points dynamically influence sales. (JEL C91, G12, G41)

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Fioretti & Alexander Vostroknutov & Giorgio Coricelli, 2022. "Dynamic Regret Avoidance," Post-Print hal-03562318, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03562318
    DOI: 10.1257/mic.20180260
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03562318
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03562318/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/mic.20180260?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Colin Camerer & Linda Babcock & George Loewenstein & Richard Thaler, 1997. "Labor Supply of New York City Cabdrivers: One Day at a Time," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 407-441.
    2. Ryan Oprea & Daniel Friedman & Steven T. Anderson, 2009. "Learning to Wait: A Laboratory Investigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(3), pages 1103-1124.
    3. David E. Bell, 1983. "Risk Premiums for Decision Regret," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(10), pages 1156-1166, October.
    4. Chip Heath & Steven Huddart & Mark Lang, 1999. "Psychological Factors and Stock Option Exercise," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 601-627.
    5. Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March.
    6. Vincent P. Crawford & Juanjuan Meng, 2011. "New York City Cab Drivers' Labor Supply Revisited: Reference-Dependent Preferences with Rational-Expectations Targets for Hours and Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1912-1932, August.
    7. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529.
    8. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2001. "Psychological Expected Utility Theory and Anticipatory Feelings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 55-79.
    9. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    10. Elad Hazan & Satyen Kale, 2015. "An Online Portfolio Selection Algorithm With Regret Logarithmic In Price Variation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 288-310, April.
    11. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Segal, Uzi, 2014. "Transitive regret over statistically independent lotteries," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 237-248.
    12. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-824, December.
    13. Heinrich Potuschak & Werner Müller, 2009. "More on the distribution of the sum of uniform random variables," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 177-183, January.
    14. David Gill & Victoria Prowse, 2012. "A Structural Analysis of Disappointment Aversion in a Real Effort Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 469-503, February.
    15. Philipp Strack & Paul Viefers, 2021. "Too Proud to Stop: Regret in Dynamic Decisions," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 165-199.
    16. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    17. Jaap H. Abbring, 2010. "Identification of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 367-394, September.
    18. Victor Aguirregabiria & Arvind Magesan, "undated". "Soultion and Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Structural Models Using Euler Equations," Working Papers 2016-32, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 24 May 2016.
    19. Cary Frydman & Colin Camerer, 2016. "Neural Evidence of Regret and Its Implications for Investor Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(11), pages 3108-3139.
    20. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    21. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
    22. David E. Bell, 1982. "Regret in Decision Making under Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 961-981, October.
    23. Cooke, Alan D J & Meyvis, Tom & Schwartz, Alan, 2001. "Avoiding Future Regret in Purchase-Timing Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 27(4), pages 447-459, March.
    24. Manel Baucells & Martin Weber & Frank Welfens, 2011. "Reference-Point Formation and Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 506-519, March.
    25. Boeri, Marco & Longo, Alberto & Grisolía, José M. & Hutchinson, W. George & Kee, Frank, 2013. "The role of regret minimisation in lifestyle choices affecting the risk of coronary heart disease," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 253-260.
    26. Zeelenberg, M., 1999. "Anticipated regret, expected feedback and behavioral decision-making," Other publications TiSEM 38371d1b-31fd-45b0-860f-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    27. Ryan Oprea, 2014. "Survival versus Profit Maximization in a Dynamic Stochastic Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2225-2255, November.
    28. Todd Sarver, 2008. "Anticipating Regret: Why Fewer Options May Be Better," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 263-305, March.
    29. Michenaud, Sébastien & Solnik, Bruno, 2008. "Applying regret theory to investment choices: Currency hedging decisions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 677-694, September.
    30. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:2:p:673-699 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Emel Filiz-Ozbay & Erkut Y. Ozbay, 2007. "Auctions with Anticipated Regret: Theory and Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1407-1418, September.
    32. Martin Pesendorfer & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2008. "Asymptotic Least Squares Estimators for Dynamic Games -super-1," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 901-928.
    33. Ignacio Esponda Jr. & Emanuel Vespa Jr., 2014. "Hypothetical Thinking and Information Extraction in the Laboratory," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 180-202, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Armantier, Olivier & Foncel, Jérôme & Treich, Nicolas, 2023. "Insurance and portfolio decisions: Two sides of the same coin?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 201-219.
    2. Rusch, Hannes & Vostroknutov, Alexander, 2024. "The evolution of personal standards into social norms," Research Memorandum 011, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    3. Klimm, Felix & Kocher, Martin G. & Opitz, Timm & Schudy, Simeon, 2023. "Time pressure and regret in sequential search," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 406-424.
    4. Kawagoe, Toshiji & Takizawa, Hirokazu & Yamamori, Tetsuo, 2023. "Asymmetric volunteer's dilemma game: Theory and experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 955-977.
    5. Yang, Ann Shawing, 2023. "Regret sensitivity and stock certificate loss reporting: Evidence from Taiwan," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michele Fioretti & Alexander Vostroknutov & Giorgio Coricelli, 2022. "Dynamic Regret Avoidance," SciencePo Working papers hal-03562318, HAL.
    2. Klimm, Felix & Kocher, Martin G. & Opitz, Timm & Schudy, Simeon, 2023. "Time pressure and regret in sequential search," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 406-424.
    3. Qin, Jie, 2015. "A model of regret, investor behavior, and market turbulence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 150-174.
    4. Zheng, Jiakun, 2021. "Willingness to pay for reductions in health risks under anticipated regret," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Jiakun Zheng, 2021. "Willingness to pay for reductions in health risks under anticipated regret," Post-Print hal-04227414, HAL.
    6. Schwerter, Frederik, 2013. "Social Reference Points and Risk Taking," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 11/2013, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    7. Korn, Olaf & Rieger, Marc Oliver, 2019. "Hedging with regret," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 192-205.
    8. Jeeva Somasundaram & Enrico Diecidue, 2017. "Regret theory and risk attitudes," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 147-175, December.
    9. Schwerter, Frederik, 2015. "Social Reference Points and Risk Taking," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112889, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Diecidue, Enrico & Somasundaram, Jeeva, 2017. "Regret theory: A new foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 88-119.
    11. Jhunjhunwala, Tanushree, 2021. "Searching to avoid regret: An experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 298-319.
    12. Tomas Sjöström & Levent Ülkü & Radovan Vadovic, 2017. "Free to Choose: Testing the Pure Motivation Effect of Autonomous Choice," Carleton Economic Papers 17-11, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    13. Juanjuan Meng & Xi Weng, 2018. "Can Prospect Theory Explain the Disposition Effect? A New Perspective on Reference Points," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(7), pages 3331-3351, July.
    14. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Martin Dufwenberg, 2022. "Belief-Dependent Motivations and Psychological Game Theory," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 833-882, September.
    15. Christian Gollier, 2020. "Aversion to risk of regret and preference for positively skewed risks," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 70(4), pages 913-941, November.
    16. Qin, Jie, 2020. "Regret-based capital asset pricing model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Enrico Diecidue & Nils Rudi & Wenjie Tang, 2012. "Dynamic Purchase Decisions Under Regret: Price and Availability," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 22-30, March.
    18. Martín Egozcue & Xu Guo & Wing-Keung Wong, 2015. "Optimal output for the regret-averse competitive firm under price uncertainty," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 279-295, December.
    19. Embrey, Matthew & Seel, Christian & Philipp Reiss, J., 2024. "Gambling in risk-taking contests: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 570-585.
    20. Ivan Barreda-Tarrazona & Ainhoa Jaramillo-Gutierrez & Daniel Navarro-Martinez & Gerardo Sabater-Grande, 2014. "The role of forgone opportunities in decision making under risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 167-188, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market behavior; behavioral finance; regret avoidance; dynamic regret; dynamic discrete choice; structural models; experiments; multiple reference points;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03562318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.