IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Applying regret theory to investment choices: Currency hedging decisions

Author Info

  • Michenaud, Sébastien
  • Solnik, Bruno
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We apply regret theory, an axiomatic behavioral theory, to derive closed-form solutions to optimal currency hedging choices. Investors experience regret of not having chosen the ex post optimal hedging decision. Hence, investors anticipate their future experience of regret and incorporate it in their objective function. We derive a model of financial decision-making with two components of risk: traditional risk (volatility) and regret risk. We find results that are in sharp contrast with traditional expected utility, loss aversion, or disappointment aversion theories. We discuss the empirical implications of our model and its ability to explain observed hedging behavior.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261-5606(08)00050-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 677-694

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:5:p:677-694
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

    Keywords:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
    2. Cooke, Alan D J & Meyvis, Tom & Schwartz, Alan, 2001. " Avoiding Future Regret in Purchase-Timing Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 447-59, March.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Karine Serfaty-de Medeiros & Luis M. Viceira, 2007. "Global Currency Hedging," NBER Working Papers 13088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August.
    5. Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-86, May.
    6. David Backus & Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, 2004. "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists," NBER Working Papers 10597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Levy, H & Markowtiz, H M, 1979. "Approximating Expected Utility by a Function of Mean and Variance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 308-17, June.
    8. Francisco J. Gomes, 2005. "Portfolio Choice and Trading Volume with Loss-Averse Investors," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 675-706, March.
    9. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
    10. Krähmer, Daniel & Stone, Rebecca, 2005. "Regret in Dynamic Decision Problems," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 71, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    11. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-24, December.
    12. Loistl, Otto, 1976. "The Erroneous Approximation of Expected Utility by Means of a Taylor's Series Expansion: Analytic and Computational Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(5), pages 904-10, December.
    13. Paul A. Samuelson, 1970. "The Fundamental Approximation Theorem of Portfolio Analysis in terms of Means, Variances and Higher Moments," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(4), pages 537-542.
    14. Michael Braun & Alexander Muermann, 2004. "The Impact of Regret on the Demand for Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 737-767.
    15. David E. Bell, 1983. "Risk Premiums for Decision Regret," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(10), pages 1156-1166, October.
    16. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
    17. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1981. "Cross Hedging," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1182-96, December.
    18. Gordon M. Bodnar & Gregory S. Hayt & Richard C. Marston, 1998. "1998 Wharton Survey of Financial Risk Management by US Non-Financial Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(4), Winter.
    19. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
    20. Black, Fischer, 1990. " Equilibrium Exchange Rate Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 899-907, July.
    21. Simonson, Itamar, 1992. " The Influence of Anticipating Regret and Responsibility on Purchase Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 105-18, June.
    22. Quiggin, John, 1994. "Regret Theory with General Choice Sets," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 153-65, March.
    23. Smith, Richard David, 1996. "Is Regret Theory an alternative basis for estimating the value of healthcare interventions?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 105-115, August.
    24. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Liu, Jun, 2005. "Why stocks may disappoint," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 471-508, June.
    25. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
    26. Muermann, Alexander & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Volkman, Jacqueline M., 2006. "Regret, portfolio choice, and guarantees in defined contribution schemes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 219-229, October.
    27. Kroll, Yoram & Levy, Haim & Markowitz, Harry M, 1984. " Mean-Variance versus Direct Utility Maximization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 47-61, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    as in new window


    Cited by:

    1. Qin, Jie, 2015. "A model of regret, investor behavior, and market turbulence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 150-174.
    2. Han Bleichrodt & Peter P. Wakker, 2015. "Regret Theory: A Bold Alternative to the Alternatives," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(583), pages 493-532, 03.
    3. Broll, Udo & Ergozue, Martin & Welzel, Peter & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2013. "Optimal Output for the Regret-Averse Competitive Firm Under Price Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 51703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hirigoyen, Gérard & Labaki, Rania, 2012. "The role of regret in the owner-manager decision-making in the family business: A conceptual approach," Journal of Family Business Strategy, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 118-126.
    5. Tracey West & Andrew Worthington, 2014. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Australian Financial Risk Attitudes, 2001–2010," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 263-277, June.
    6. Martín Jorge Egozcue, 2012. "Gains from diversification: a regret theory approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 204-219.
    7. Guo, Xu & Wong, Wing-Keung & Xu, Qunfang & Zhu, Xuehu, 2015. "Production and hedging decisions under regret aversion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 153-158.
    8. Judith Avrahami & Yaakov Kareev & Einav Hart, 2014. "Taking the sting out of choice: Diversification of investments," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 9(5), pages 373-386, September.
    9. Wong, Kit Pong, 2015. "A regret theory of capital structure," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 48-57.
    10. Gollier, Christian, 2016. "Explaining rank-dependent utility with regret and rejoicing," TSE Working Papers 16-646, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    11. Bruno Solnik & Luo Zuo, 2012. "A Global Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Home Preference," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 273-292, February.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Access and download statistics

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:5:p:677-694. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.