Applying regret theory to investment choices: Currency hedging decisions
We apply regret theory, an axiomatic behavioral theory, to derive closed-form solutions to optimal currency hedging choices. Investors experience regret of not having chosen the ex post optimal hedging decision. Hence, investors anticipate their future experience of regret and incorporate it in their objective function. We derive a model of financial decision-making with two components of risk: traditional risk (volatility) and regret risk. We find results that are in sharp contrast with traditional expected utility, loss aversion, or disappointment aversion theories. We discuss the empirical implications of our model and its ability to explain observed hedging behavior.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Y. Campbell & Karine Serfaty-De Medeiros & Luis M. Viceira, 2010.
"Global Currency Hedging,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 87-121, 02.
- John Y. Campbell & Karine Serfaty-de Medeiros & Luis M. Viceira, 2007. "Global Currency Hedging," NBER Working Papers 13088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Viceira, Luis & Serfaty-de Medeiros, Karine & Campbell, John, 2009. "Global Currency Hedging," Scholarly Articles 3153308, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
- Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August.
- David E. Bell, 1983. "Risk Premiums for Decision Regret," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(10), pages 1156-1166, October.
- Smith, Richard David, 1996. "Is Regret Theory an alternative basis for estimating the value of healthcare interventions?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 105-115, August.
- Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
- Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1993. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 4369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-824, December.
- Loistl, Otto, 1976. "The Erroneous Approximation of Expected Utility by Means of a Taylor's Series Expansion: Analytic and Computational Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(5), pages 904-910, December.
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1970. "The Fundamental Approximation Theorem of Portfolio Analysis in terms of Means, Variances and Higher Moments," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(4), pages 537-542.
- David K. Backus & Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2005. "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 319-414 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Backus & Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, 2004. "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists," Working Papers 04-20, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- David Backus & Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, 2004. "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists," NBER Working Papers 10597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Braun & Alexander Muermann, 2004. "The Impact of Regret on the Demand for Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 737-767.
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Liu, Jun, 2005. "Why stocks may disappoint," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 471-508, June.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Jun Liu, 2000. "Why Stocks May Disappoint," NBER Working Papers 7783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-686, May.
- Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
- Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2002. "Exchange Rate, Equity Prices and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 9398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hau, Harald & Rey, Hélène, 2003. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices and Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 3735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
- Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1981. "Cross Hedging," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1182-1196, December.
- Black, Fischer, 1990. " Equilibrium Exchange Rate Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 899-907, July.
- Quiggin, John, 1994. "Regret Theory with General Choice Sets," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 153-165, March.
- Cooke, Alan D J & Meyvis, Tom & Schwartz, Alan, 2001. " Avoiding Future Regret in Purchase-Timing Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 447-459, March.
- Gordon M. Bodnar & Gregory S. Hayt & Richard C. Marston, 1998. "1998 Wharton Survey of Financial Risk Management by US Non-Financial Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(4), Winter.
- Francisco J. Gomes, 2005. "Portfolio Choice and Trading Volume with Loss-Averse Investors," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 675-706, March.
- Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
- Muermann, Alexander & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Volkman, Jacqueline M., 2006. "Regret, portfolio choice, and guarantees in defined contribution schemes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 219-229, October.
- Kroll, Yoram & Levy, Haim & Markowitz, Harry M, 1984. " Mean-Variance versus Direct Utility Maximization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 47-61, March.
- Krähmer, Daniel & Stone, Rebecca, 2005. "Regret in Dynamic Decision Problems," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 71, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Levy, H & Markowtiz, H M, 1979. "Approximating Expected Utility by a Function of Mean and Variance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 308-317, June.
- Simonson, Itamar, 1992. " The Influence of Anticipating Regret and Responsibility on Purchase Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 105-118, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)