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Dynamic consumption and portfolio choice under prospect theory

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  • van Bilsen, Servaas
  • Laeven, Roger J.A.

Abstract

This paper explicitly derives the optimal dynamic consumption and portfolio choice of an individual with prospect theory preferences. The individual is loss averse, endogenously updates his reference level over time, and distorts probabilities. We show that the optimal consumption strategy is rather insensitive to economic shocks. In particular, in case the individual sufficiently overweights unlikely unfavorable events, our model generates an endogenous floor on consumption. As a result, an individual with prospect theory preferences typically implements a (very) conservative portfolio strategy. We discuss implications of our results for the design of investment-linked annuity products.

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  • van Bilsen, Servaas & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2020. "Dynamic consumption and portfolio choice under prospect theory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 224-237.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:91:y:2020:i:c:p:224-237
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.02.004
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    2. Guohui Guan & Qitao Huang & Zongxia Liang & Fengyi Yuan, 2020. "Retirement decision with addictive habit persistence in a jump diffusion market," Papers 2011.10166, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Ruß, Jochen & Schelling, Stefan, 2021. "Return smoothing in life insurance from a client perspective," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PA), pages 91-106.
    4. Xue Dong He & Zhaoli Jiang & Steven Kou, 2020. "Portfolio Selection under Median and Quantile Maximization," Papers 2008.10257, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    5. Jia Yue & Ming-Hui Wang & Nan-Jing Huang, 2022. "Global Optimal Consumption–Portfolio Rules with Myopic Preferences and Loss Aversion," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(4), pages 1427-1455, December.
    6. Wang, Jianli & Liu, Liqun & Neilson, William S., 2020. "The participation puzzle with reference-dependent expected utility preferences," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 278-287.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loss aversion; Endogenous reference level; Optimal consumption choice; Optimal portfolio choice; Probability weighting; Optimal annuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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