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What drove the massive hoarding of international reserves? A time-varying approach

Author

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  • Anne-Laure Delatte

    (Pôle Finance Responsable - Rouen Business School - Rouen Business School)

  • Julien Fouquau

    (Pôle Finance Responsable - Rouen Business School - Rouen Business School)

Abstract

Existing empirical models fail to explain the surge in the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by emerging countries during the last decade. This paper provides an estimate of the demand for international reserves on a panel of emerging countries using a time-varying panel smooth transition regression (TV-PSTR) model to relax the assumption of coefficient stability in the relationship. Evidence is dound that the parameters are not constant. In addition, it is observed that the coefficients remained relatively stable until 2000 and then increased gradually and strongly thereafter. The specification provided here accounts for an acceleration that linear specifications fail to explain. Finally, it is found that mercantilist motives are the major driver of this acceleration.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau, 2012. "What drove the massive hoarding of international reserves? A time-varying approach," Post-Print hal-00822294, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00822294
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2011.01015.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Yeonjeong Lee & Seong-Min Yoon, 2020. "Relationship between International Reserves and FX Rate Movements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2023. "The Impacts of Financial Crises on the Trilemma Configurations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 479-517, July.
    3. Cheng, Gong, 2015. "A Growth Perspective On Foreign Reserve Accumulation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 1358-1379, September.
    4. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2017. "Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980s," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 308-364, June.
    5. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
    6. Florian Brugger, 2016. "Asias Reserve Accumulation: Part of a New Paradigm," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(8), pages 457-476, August.
    7. Dakhlallah Kassim, 2019. "Reserve Adequacies and the Determinants of Foreign Exchange Reserves – Empirical Analysis through the Vector Error Correction Model: The Case of Lebanon," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-17, August.
    8. Jäger, Kai, 2016. "The Role of Regime Type in the Political Economy of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 79-96.
    9. Ms. Rina Bhattacharya & Katja Mann & Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2018. "Estimating the Demand for Reserve Assets Across Diverse Groups," IMF Working Papers 2018/047, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Jean‐Pierre Allegret & Audrey Allegret, 2019. "Did foreign exchange holding influence growth performance during the global financial crisis?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 680-710, March.
    11. Schröder, Marcel, 2017. "Mercantilism and China's hunger for international reserves," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 15-33.
    12. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2014. "Accounting for emerging market countries' international reserves: Are Pacific Rim countries different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 52-82.
    13. Florian Brugger, 2015. "Asia’s Reserve Accumulation: Part of a New Paradigm," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2015-03, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    14. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie David Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2013. "The “Impossible Trinity” Hypothesis in an Era of Global Imbalances: Measurement and Testing," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 447-458, August.
    15. Chokri Abdelmajid Zehri, 2020. "Capital Restrictions Policies, Currency Appreciation and Foreign Debts," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 16(3), pages 149-159.
    16. Yavuz Arslan & Carlos Cantú, 2019. "The size of foreign exchange reserves," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Reserve management and FX intervention, volume 104, pages 1-23, Bank for International Settlements.

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