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The determinants of international reserves in the emerging countries: a nonlinear approach

  • Anne-Laure Delatte
  • Julien Fouquau

In this article, we adopt a nonlinear approach to examine the dynamics of the international reserves holdings by the emerging economies. To do so, we estimate the demand for international reserves with a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model that loosens two restricting hypotheses, homogeneity and time-stability. We find evidence for the presence of a nonlinear behaviour in the demand for international reserves, a result that is new to the literature. The coefficients are found to change smoothly, as a function of two threshold variables - out of five candidates tested in total. Our specification accounts for the acceleration of foreign exchange reserves accumulation that the linear specifications fail to explain.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 43 (2011)
Issue (Month): 28 ()
Pages: 4179-4192

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:28:p:4179-4192
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  1. Julien Fouquau, 2008. "The Non-Linear Link between Electricity Consumption and Temperature in Europe: a Threshold Panel Approach," Post-Print halshs-00360443, HAL.
  2. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops, and Current Account Reversals," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 73-120 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gilbert COLLETAZ & Christophe HURLIN, 2006. "Threshold Effects of the Public Capital Productivity : An International Panel Smooth Transition Approach," Working Papers 1669, Orleans Economic Laboratorys, University of Orleans.
  5. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P., 2003. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9s7978n1, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  6. Julien Fouquau & Christophe Hurlin & Isabelle Rabaud, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: a Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach," Post-Print halshs-00292472, HAL.
  7. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "Too Much of a Good Thing?: The Adequacy of International Reserves in the Aftermath of Crises," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-10, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  8. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
  9. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  10. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics.
  11. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1974. "The Demand for International Reserves by Developed and Less-Developed Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 41(161), pages 14-24, February.
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