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Le retour des motifs mercantilistes dans la demande de réserves internationales des pays émergents

Author

Listed:
  • Anne-Laure Delatte

    (Pôle Finance Responsable - Rouen Business School - Rouen Business School)

  • Julien Fouquau

    (Pôle Finance Responsable - Rouen Business School - Rouen Business School)

Abstract

La littérature empirique existante attribue l'accumulation de réserves internationales dans les pays émergents exclusivement à un motif d'assurance. Les banques centrales accumuleraient des réserves pour se protéger contre des épisodes soudains de sorties de capitaux. Si cette explication est convaincante jusqu'aux années 1990, elle néglige le fait que ces pays sont passés d'une position de débiteurs à celle de créanciers internationaux depuis. Dans cet article, nous testons l'hypothèse que les motifs d'accumulation de réserves ne sont pas stables entre 1981 et 2007. Pour cela, nous employons un modèle à coefficients variant dans le temps sur données de panel (Time Varying Panel Smooth Transition Regression ou tv-pstr). Les résultats des estimations nous amènent à rejeter l'hypothèse de stabilité temporelle des coefficients. Nous montrons que le comportement des banques centrales s'est modifié au cours du temps et que les motifs d'assurance s'effacent au profit de motifs mercantilistes à partir de 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau, 2012. "Le retour des motifs mercantilistes dans la demande de réserves internationales des pays émergents," Post-Print hal-00812053, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00812053
    DOI: 10.3917/reco.635.1013
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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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