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Trade policy repercussions: the role of local product space -Evidence from China

Author

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  • Julien Gourdon

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Laura Hering

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Stéphanie Monjon

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Sandra Poncet

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, LU - Hong Kong - Lingnan University, UP1 UFR02 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - École d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International)

Abstract

Our study shows that the relatively under-studied VAT export rebate system is a major industrial policy of the Chinese authorities to support exports. We use city-specific export-quantity data at the HS6-product level over the 2003-12 period to assess how changes in the VAT export tax have affected China's export performance. We are particularly interested in how the impact of this policy varies within products across cities depending on how well connected the targeted product is to the local productive structure. Our difference-indifference estimates exploit an eligibility rule disqualifying some export flows from the rebates. Our results suggest that a one percent rise in the VAT export tax leads to a 6.6% relative decrease in eligible export quantities. We then show that the effectiveness of this export tax policy is magnified when it applies to products with denser links with the local productive structure. Hence export benefits from VAT export rebates are greater for cities that have the necessary capabilities and resources to carry out the activities supported by this rebate policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Gourdon & Laura Hering & Stéphanie Monjon & Sandra Poncet, 2019. "Trade policy repercussions: the role of local product space -Evidence from China," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02065779, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-02065779
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02065779
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Baoqing Tang & Bo Gao & Jing Ma, 2021. "The impact of export VAT rebates on firm productivity: Evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(10), pages 2798-2820, October.
    3. Bo Gao & Jing Ma & Zheng Wang, 2021. "The employment and wage effects of export VAT rebates: evidence from China," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(2), pages 347-373, May.
    4. Bown, Chad, 2019. "The 2018 US-China Trade Conflict After 40 Years of Special Protection," CEPR Discussion Papers 13695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Sun, Churen & Wu, Han, 2023. "The impact of export VAT rebate on firm-product markups: Evidence from Chinese industrial enterprises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    6. Braakmann, Nils & Gao, Bo & Maioli, Sara, 2020. "VAT rebates as trade policy: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    Keywords

    VAT system; policy evaluation; export tax; export performance; trade elasticity; product relatedness; China;
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