IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/scandj/v124y2022i1p243-277.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the repercussions from China's export value‐added tax rebate policy

Author

Listed:
  • Julien Gourdon
  • Laura Hering
  • Stéphanie Monjon
  • Sandra Poncet

Abstract

Our study shows that China's export value‐added tax (VAT) rebate system is a major industrial policy that affects its exports. We use export data at the HS6 product level for a panel of 329 Chinese cities over the 2003–2012 period to assess how changes in the export VAT tax have affected China's export performance. We consider different trade margins in terms of volumes, prices, and the number of countries served. To counter endogeneity, we exploit variations in the expected impact of the export VAT rebates by trade regime, which come from an eligibility rule disqualifying certain export flows from the rebates. Our results suggest that a 1 percent decline in the export VAT tax leads to a 7.2 percent relative increase in eligible export values at the city level. This effect is due to an adjustment of quantities and the number of foreign markets served while the average unit values of exports remain unchanged.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Gourdon & Laura Hering & Stéphanie Monjon & Sandra Poncet, 2022. "Estimating the repercussions from China's export value‐added tax rebate policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(1), pages 243-277, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:124:y:2022:i:1:p:243-277
    DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12453
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12453
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/sjoe.12453?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gourdon, Julien & Monjon, Stéphanie & Poncet, Sandra, 2016. "Trade policy and industrial policy in China: What motivates public authorities to apply restrictions on exports?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 105-120.
    2. Broda, Christian & Greenfield, Joshua & Weinstein, David E., 2017. "From groundnuts to globalization: A structural estimate of trade and growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(4), pages 759-783.
    3. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    4. Fitzgerald, Doireann & Haller, Stefanie, 2018. "Exporters and shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 154-171.
    5. Bas, Maria & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2017. "From micro to macro: Demand, supply, and heterogeneity in the trade elasticity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-19.
    6. Fontagné, Lionel & Martin, Philippe & Orefice, Gianluca, 2018. "The international elasticity puzzle is worse than you think," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 115-129.
    7. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2016. "The Effects of Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 21957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. "Ownership and Control in Outsourcing to China: Estimating the Property-Rights Theory of the Firm," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 729-761.
    9. repec:wyi:journl:002196 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "The Smuggling of Art, and the Art of Smuggling: Uncovering the Illicit Trade in Cultural Property and Antiques," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 82-96, July.
    11. di Giovanni, Julian & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2013. "Firm entry, trade, and welfare in Zipf's world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 283-296.
    12. Manova, Kalina & Yu, Zhihong, 2016. "How firms export: Processing vs. ordinary trade with financial frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 120-137.
    13. Dai, Mi & Maitra, Madhura & Yu, Miaojie, 2016. "Unexceptional exporter performance in China? The role of processing trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 177-189.
    14. Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Tax Rates and Tax Evasion: Evidence from "Missing Imports" in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 471-500, April.
    15. Hiau Looi Kee & Heiwai Tang, 2016. "Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1402-1436, June.
    16. Jean, Sébastien & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2009. "Determinants and pervasiveness of the evasion of custom duties," Conference papers 331896, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Sourafel Girma & Yundan Gong & Holger Görg & Zhihong Yu, 2009. "Can Production Subsidies Explain China's Export Performance? Evidence from Firm‐level Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(4), pages 863-891, December.
    18. Garred, Jason, 2018. "The persistence of trade policy in China after WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 130-142.
    19. Chen, Chien-Hsun & Mai, Chao-Cheng & Yu, Hui-Chuan, 2006. "The effect of export tax rebates on export performance: Theory and evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 226-235.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2j87pv5ou185f980qgrpf9net0 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    22. Simon J. Evenett & Johannes Fritz & Yang Chun Jing, 2012. "Beyond dollar exchange-rate targeting: China’s crisis-era export management regime," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(2), pages 284-300, SUMMER.
    23. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6apm7lruv088iagm4rv2c33jtg is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Eisenbarth, Sabrina, 2017. "Is Chinese trade policy motivated by environmental concerns?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 74-103.
    25. Ferrantino, Michael J. & Liu, Xuepeng & Wang, Zhi, 2012. "Evasion behaviors of exporters and importers: Evidence from the U.S.–China trade data discrepancy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 141-157.
    26. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3lmdaefcr886ao8sahjmam30ke is not listed on IDEAS
    27. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/nki2gcedn93280ns6fslbhdnm is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    29. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," Post-Print hal-03579844, HAL.
    30. Chandra, Piyush & Long, Cheryl, 2013. "VAT rebates and export performance in China: Firm-level evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 13-22.
    31. Upward, Richard & Wang, Zheng & Zheng, Jinghai, 2013. "Weighing China’s export basket: The domestic content and technology intensity of Chinese exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 527-543.
    32. Koopman, Robert & Wang, Zhi & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2012. "Estimating domestic content in exports when processing trade is pervasive," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 178-189.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Teng & Xu, Shu & Zhang, Shuoxun, 2022. "Are export tax rebates patronage for Chinese firms? An analysis of productivity," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Xu, Zhiwei & Wen, Qiang & Zhang, Teng, 2023. "Trade policy and air pollution: Evidence from the adjustment of the export tax rebate in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julien Gourdon & Laura Hering & Stéphanie Monjon & Sandra Poncet, 2022. "Estimating the Repercussions from China’s Export VAT Rebate Policy," Post-Print hal-03274542, HAL.
    2. Julien Gourdon & Laura Hering & Stéphanie Monjon & Sandra Poncet, 2019. "Trade policy repercussions: the role of local product space -Evidence from China," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02065779, HAL.
    3. Braakmann, Nils & Gao, Bo & Maioli, Sara, 2020. "VAT rebates as trade policy: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Brandt, Loren & Li, Bingjing & Morrow, Peter M., 2021. "Processing trade and costs of incomplete liberalization: The case of China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Julien Gourdon & Stéphanie Monjon & Sandra Poncet, 2014. "Incomplete VAT rebates to exporters : how do they affect China's export performance?," Working Papers 2014-05, CEPII research center.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13784 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sandra PONCET & Julien GOURDON & Laura HERING & Stéphanie MONJON, 2014. "Export management and incomplete VAT rebates to exporters: the case of China," Working Papers P117, FERDI.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14545 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. L. An & C. Hu & Yong Tan, 2017. "Regional effects of export tax rebate on exporting firms: Evidence from China," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 774-798, September.
    10. Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez & Miaojie Yu, 2017. "All-Around Trade Liberalization and Firm-Level Employment: Theory and Evidence from China," CESifo Working Paper Series 6710, CESifo.
    11. Bie, Xiaodong & Ciani, Andrea, 2021. "Born similar, develop apart: Evidence on Chinese hybrid exporters," DICE Discussion Papers 364, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    12. Zhe Chen & Yoshinori Kurokawa, 2022. "Do exporters respond to both tariffs and nominal exchange rates? Evidence from Chinese firm‐product data," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 514-548, May.
    13. Lionel Fontagné & Houssein Guimbard & Gianluca Orefice, 2019. "Product-Level Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 2019-17, CEPII research center.
    14. Jong Hyun Chung, 2020. "Firm heterogeneity, misallocation, and trade," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2020-01, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    15. Lionel Gérard Fontagné & Houssein Guimbard & Gianluca Orefice, 2020. "Product-Level Trade Elasticities: Worth Weighting For," CESifo Working Paper Series 8491, CESifo.
    16. Bo Gao & Jing Ma & Zheng Wang, 2021. "The employment and wage effects of export VAT rebates: evidence from China," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(2), pages 347-373, May.
    17. José de Sousa & Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2015. "Has trade openness reduced pollution in China?," Working Papers 2015-11, CEPII research center.
    18. Liu, Chen & Ma, Xiao, 2023. "Migration, tariffs, and China's export surge," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    19. Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2017. "Aggregating from Micro to Macro Patterns of Trade," NBER Working Papers 24051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Sourafel Girma & Holger Görg, 2022. "Productivity effects of processing and ordinary export market entry: A time‐varying treatments approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 836-853, August.
    21. Krolikowski, Pawel M. & McCallum, Andrew H., 2021. "Goods-market frictions and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    22. Gourdon, Julien & Monjon, Stéphanie & Poncet, Sandra, 2016. "Trade policy and industrial policy in China: What motivates public authorities to apply restrictions on exports?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 105-120.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:124:y:2022:i:1:p:243-277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-9442 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.