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On the Asymmetry between Conflict and Development: Evidence from Sustainable Development Goals

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  • Rabah Arezki

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, Harvard Kennedy School)

  • Hieu Nguyen

    (WUSTL - Washington University in Saint Louis)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between (internal) armed conflict and sustainable development. Using annual panel data on 192 countries from 2000 to 2024, we employ a variety of econometric techniques to trace the impulse responses between conflict fatalities and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) performance in both directions. Results reveal a striking asymmetry: conflict shocks produce long-lasting adverse effects on SDG performance, while SDG performance shocks exert only transient effects on conflict intensity. This asymmetry persists across external and major conflict episodes, and is robust to alternative identification strategies. Our findings indicate that sustainable development is fundamentally contingent on prior achievement of peace.

Suggested Citation

  • Rabah Arezki & Hieu Nguyen, 2026. "On the Asymmetry between Conflict and Development: Evidence from Sustainable Development Goals," CERDI Working papers hal-05492339, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-05492339
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://uca.hal.science/hal-05492339v1
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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