Is Our World Going to Get a Whole Lot Smaller?
The surge of oil prices in recent years has led to speculation that rising transportation costs could end the period of dramatic world trade growth Ñin the words of Rubin (2009), ÒÉYour world is going to get a whole lot smaller.Ó Using data from ChinaÕs Customs Statistics, we examine the impact of oil prices on tradeÕs sensitivity to distance. We find that higher oil prices increase tradeÕs elasticity to distance, but that the economic effect is small. We also find that the effect is more pronounced for trade within global production networks, and less large for goods shipped by air.
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- J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006.
"The Log of Gravity,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The log of gravity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3744, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Santos Silva, J.M.C & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEPR Discussion Papers 5311, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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