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Reducing within-group overconfidence through group identity and between-group confidence judgments

Author

Listed:
  • Philip Brookins

    (Department of Economics, Florida State University)

  • Adriana Lucas

    (Department of Economics, Florida State University)

  • Dmitry Ryvkin

    (Department of Economics, Florida State University)

Abstract

Overconfidence in one's relative performance within a group is a wide-spread phenomenon. Similar to individual (or within-group) overconfidence, it was also shown that individuals are, on average, overconfident about the performance of their group relative to other groups. We hypothesize that this between-group overconfidence should mitigate within-group individual overconfidence. Simply put, if the decision maker believes that her group's ranking is high it must be because her beliefs about the performance of other members of her group are inflated, which we expect will lead to a reduction in her individual within-group overconfidence. We test this hypothesis in a laboratory experiment. Using a 2x2 between-subject design, we manipulate the salience of between-group confidence judgments and group identity. We find, as hypothesized, that the salience of between-group confidence judgments significantly reduces within-group individual overconfidence. We also find an equally strong reduction in within-group overconfidence from the group identity manipulation. For managers whose goal is to improve calibration of their employees, our results imply that activities promoting comparisons between groups, e.g., between firms or between teams within a firm, and strengthening organizational identity should be helpful.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Brookins & Adriana Lucas & Dmitry Ryvkin, 2014. "Reducing within-group overconfidence through group identity and between-group confidence judgments," Working Papers wp2014_02_01, Department of Economics, Florida State University, revised Feb 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:fsu:wpaper:wp2014_02_01
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    Cited by:

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    2. Fellner-Röhling, Gerlinde & Hromek, Kristijan & Kleinknecht, Janina & Ludwig, Sandra, 2023. "How to counteract biased self-assessments? An experimental investigation of reactions to social information," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1-25.
    3. Murad, Zahra & Starmer, Chris, 2021. "Confidence snowballing and relative performance feedback," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 550-572.
    4. Shimon Kogan & Florian H. Schneider & Roberto A. Weber, 2021. "Self-serving biases in beliefs about collective outcomes," ECON - Working Papers 379, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    5. Changxia Ke & Florian Morath & Sophia Seelos, 2023. "Do groups fight more? Experimental evidence on conflict initiation," Working Papers 2023-16, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    6. Rojas Méndez, Ana María & Scartascini, Carlos, 2024. "Debiasing Policymakers: The Role of Behavioral Economics Training," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13476, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Cacault, Maria Paula & Grieder, Manuel, 2019. "How group identification distorts beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 63-76.
    8. Andrzej Baniak & Peter Grajzl, 2016. "Controlling Product Risks when Consumers Are Heterogeneously Overconfident: Producer Liability versus Minimum-Quality-Standard Regulation," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 172(2), pages 274-304, June.
    9. Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "On the Measurement of Overconfidence: An Experimental Study," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 4(1), pages 30-37, 01-2018.
    10. Andrzej Baniak & Peter Grajzl, 2014. "Controlling Product Risks when Consumers are Heterogeneously Overconfident: Producer Liability vs. Minimum Quality Standard Regulation," CESifo Working Paper Series 5003, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    overconfidence; group identity; judgment about one's group; experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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