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I Thought I Got an A! Overconfidence Across the Economics Curriculum

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  • Clifford Nowell
  • Richard M. Alston

Abstract

Students often exhibit overconfident grade expectations and tend to overestimate the actual course grade at the completion of a course. Current theories of student motivation suggest such overconfidence may lead students to study less than if they had accurate grade perceptions. The authors report the findings of a survey of students enrolled in economics and quantitative courses at a large public university. They analyze the difference between a student's expected and actual grade and how teacher pedagogies can influence student overconfidence. They find male students and those with lower GPAs exhibit greater overconfidence. Students in lower division classes have a greater tendency to be overconfident than do those in upper division classes. The findings also indicate that grading practices influence overconfidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Clifford Nowell & Richard M. Alston, 2007. "I Thought I Got an A! Overconfidence Across the Economics Curriculum," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 131-142, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jeduce:v:38:y:2007:i:2:p:131-142
    DOI: 10.3200/JECE.38.2.131-142
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karla Borja & Suzanne Dieringer, 2023. "Telling My Story: Applying Storytelling to Complex Economic Data," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 328-348, June.
    2. Belayet Hossain & Panagiotis Tsigaris, 2015. "Are grade expectations rational? A classroom experiment," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 199-212, April.
    3. Gerardo Sabater-Grande & Nikolaos Georgantzís & Noemí Herranz-Zarzoso, 2023. "Goals and guesses as reference points: a field experiment on student performance," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 94(2), pages 249-274, February.
    4. Chui, Lawrence & Martin, Kasey & Pike, Byron, 2013. "A quasi-experimental assessment of interactive student response systems on student confidence, effort, and course performance," Journal of Accounting Education, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 17-30.
    5. Gorry, Devon, 2017. "The impact of grade ceilings on student grades and course evaluations: Evidence from a policy change," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 133-140.
    6. Ivo J. M. Arnold & Jerry T. Straten, 2012. "Motivation and Math Skills as Determinants of First-Year Performance in Economics," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 33-47, January.
    7. Arnold, Ivo J.M., 2020. "Gender and major choice within economics: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    8. Wright, Nicholas A. & Arora, Puneet, 2022. "A for effort: Incomplete information and college students’ academic performance," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    9. Brookins, Philip & Lucas, Adriana & Ryvkin, Dmitry, 2014. "Reducing within-group overconfidence through group identity and between-group confidence judgments," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-12.
    10. Dennis Caplan & Kristian G. Mortenson & Marisa Lester, 2018. "Can incentives mitigate student overconfidence at grade forecasts?," Accounting Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 27-47, January.
    11. Ann L. Owen, 2010. "Grades, Gender, and Encouragement: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 217-234, June.
    12. Leonard C. Smith, 2009. "An Analysis Of The Impact Of Pedagogic Interventions In First‐Year Academic Development And Mainstream Courses In Microeconomics," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 162-178, March.
    13. Dirk S. Yandell, 2017. "Grade Expectations and Overconfidence: Is Economics Different?," Journal for Economic Educators, Middle Tennessee State University, Business and Economic Research Center, vol. 17(2), pages 18-28, Fall.
    14. Guest, Jon & Riegler, Robert, 2017. "Learning by doing: Do economics students self-evaluation skills improve?," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 50-64.
    15. Ewing, Andrew M., 2012. "Estimating the impact of relative expected grade on student evaluations of teachers," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 141-154.
    16. Ivo J. M. Arnold & Wietske Rowaan, 2014. "First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender, Motivation, and Math Skills," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 25-35, March.
    17. Jan R. Magnus & Anatoly A. Peresetsky, 2017. "Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-054/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Sawler, James, 2021. "Economics 101-ism and the Dunning-Kruger effect: Reducing overconfidence among introductory macroeconomics students," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).

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