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Estimating a firm's age-productivity profile using the present value of workers' earnings

  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  • Jagadeesh Gokhale

In hiring new workers, risk-neutral employers equate the present expected value of each worker's compensation to the present expected value of higher productivity, Data detailing how present expected compensation varies with the age of hire embed, therefore, information about how productivity varies with age. This paper infers age-productivity profiles using data on the present expected value of earnings of new hires of a Fortune 1000 firm. For each of the five occupation/sex groups considered, productivity falls with age, with productivity exceeding earnings for young workers and vice versa for older workers.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 9119.

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Date of creation: 1991
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:9119
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  1. Katharine G. Abraham & Henry S. Farber, 1986. "Job Duration, Seniority and Earnings," Working papers 407, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Bulow, Jeremy I & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "A Theory of Dual Labor Markets with Application to Industrial Policy,Discrimination, and Keynesian Unemployment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(3), pages 376-414, July.
  3. Michael A. Salinger, 1984. "Tobin's q, Unionization, and the Concentration-Profits Relationship," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 15(2), pages 159-170, Summer.
  4. Lazear, Edward P & Moore, Robert L, 1984. "Incentives, Productivity, and Labor Contracts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 275-96, May.
  5. Joseph G. Altonji & Robert A. Shakotko, 1985. "Do Wages Rise With Job Seniority?," NBER Working Papers 1616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Yellen, Janet L, 1984. "Efficiency Wage Models of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 200-205, May.
  7. Medoff, James L & Abraham, Katharine G, 1980. "Experience, Performance, and Earnings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 703-36, December.
  8. George A. Akerlof & Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Do Deferred Wages Dominate Involuntary Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device?," NBER Working Papers 2025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Lazear, Edward P, 1981. "Agency, Earnings Profiles, Productivity, and Hours Restrictions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 606-20, September.
  10. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
  11. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & David A. Wise, 1984. "Labor Compensation and the Structure of Private Pension Plans: Evidence for Contractual Versus Spot Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 1290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
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