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Educational Attainment and the Evolution of Cumulative Earnings across 45 US Birth Cohorts

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Abstract

Educational attainment profoundly shapes cumulative earnings trends across US birth cohorts. Between the 1933 and 1977 cohorts, men with an advanced degree experienced rising earnings in both the early-career (ages 25 to 44) and late-career (ages 45 to 64) stages, while those with a sub-baccalaureate education―and college graduates outside the 1951–1965 cohorts―saw minimal earnings growth. Women experienced broad-based gains, with larger increases among those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. For less educated men, extended work life represented the primary growth margin in the late-career stage. While gaps between education groups widened, within-group dispersion rose across cohorts, particularly among men born between 1933 and 1957. These cohort-to-cohort changes emerged at labor market entry and persisted throughout the career cycle, indicating that the conditions in which careers begin critically shape long-run inequality dynamics.

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  • Annie Liu & Pinghui Wu, 2026. "Educational Attainment and the Evolution of Cumulative Earnings across 45 US Birth Cohorts," Working Papers 26-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:102908
    DOI: 10.29412/res.wp.2026.05
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    JEL classification:

    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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