IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/demogr/v52y2015i4p1383-1407.html

Education and Lifetime Earnings in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Tamborini
  • ChangHwan Kim

  • Arthur Sakamoto

Abstract

Differences in lifetime earnings by educational attainment have been of great research and policy interest. Although a large literature examines earnings differences by educational attainment, research on lifetime earnings—which refers to total accumulated earnings from entry into the labor market until retirement—remains limited because of the paucity of adequate data. Using data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal tax earnings as recorded by the Social Security Administration, we estimate the 50-year work career effects of education on lifetime earnings for men and women. By overcoming the purely synthetic cohort approach, our results provide a more realistic appraisal of actual patterns of lifetime earnings. Detailed estimates are provided for gross lifetime earnings by education; net lifetime earnings after controlling for covariates associated with the probability of obtaining a bachelor’s degree; and the net present 50-year lifetime value of education at age 20. In addition, we provide estimates that include individuals with zero earnings and disability. We also assess the adequacy of the purely synthetic cohort approach, which uses age differences in earnings observed in cross-sectional surveys to approximate lifetime earnings. Overall, our results confirm the persistent positive effects of higher education on earnings over different stages of the work career and over a lifetime, but also reveal notably smaller net effects on lifetime earnings compared with previously reported estimates. We discuss the implications of these and other findings. Copyright Population Association of America 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Tamborini & ChangHwan Kim & Arthur Sakamoto, 2015. "Education and Lifetime Earnings in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(4), pages 1383-1407, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:52:y:2015:i:4:p:1383-1407
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-015-0407-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s13524-015-0407-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13524-015-0407-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James M. Poterba & Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 2010. "The Rise of 401(k) Plans, Lifetime Earnings, and Wealth at Retirement," NBER Chapters, in: Research Findings in the Economics of Aging, pages 271-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Johnson, George E & Stafford, Frank P, 1974. "Lifetime Earnings in a Professional Labor Market: Academic Economists," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 549-569, May/June.
    3. Steven Haider & Gary Solon, 2006. "Life-Cycle Variation in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1308-1320, September.
    4. Riddell, W. Craig & Song, Xueda, 2011. "The impact of education on unemployment incidence and re-employment success: Evidence from the U.S. labour market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 453-463, August.
    5. Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt, 1994. "The Growth of Earnings Instability in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 217-272.
    6. Cristia, Julian P., 2009. "Rising mortality and life expectancy differentials by lifetime earnings in the United States," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 984-995, September.
    7. Christopher J. Flinn, 2002. "Labour Market Structure and Inequality: A Comparison of Italy and the U.S," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 611-645.
    8. Manudeep Bhuller & Magne Mogstad & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2017. "Life-Cycle Earnings, Education Premiums, and Internal Rates of Return," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(4), pages 993-1030.
    9. Christopher Tamborini & Howard Iams, 2011. "Are Generation X’ers Different than Late Boomers? Family and Earnings Trends among Recent Cohorts of Women at Young Adulthood," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(1), pages 59-79, February.
    10. Erin Ruel & Robert Hauser, 2013. "Explaining the Gender Wealth Gap," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(4), pages 1155-1176, August.
    11. Christopher Avery & Sarah Turner, 2012. "Student Loans: Do College Students Borrow Too Much--Or Not Enough?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 165-192, Winter.
    12. Hendricks, Lutz, 2007. "The intergenerational persistence of lifetime earnings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 125-144, January.
    13. Barrow Lisa & Rouse Cecilia Elena, 2005. "Does College Still Pay?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 1-9, September.
    14. Jennie Brand & Dwight Davis, 2011. "The Impact of College Education on Fertility: Evidence for Heterogeneous Effects," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 863-887, August.
    15. Philip Oreopoulos & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2011. "Priceless: The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 159-184, Winter.
    16. Manning, Willard G., 1998. "The logged dependent variable, heteroscedasticity, and the retransformation problem," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-295, June.
    17. Jonathan Davis & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2011. "An Analysis of Sample Selection and the Reliability of Using Short-term Earnings Averages in SIPP-SSA Matched Data," Working Papers 11-39, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    18. Gouskova, Elena & Chiteji, Ngina & Stafford, Frank, 2010. "Estimating the intergenerational persistence of lifetime earnings with life course matching: Evidence from the PSID," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 592-597, June.
    19. Christine Schwartz, 2010. "Pathways to educational homogamy in marital and cohabiting unions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(3), pages 735-753, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vitaliy Strohush & Justin Wanner, 2015. "College Degree for Everyone?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 21(3), pages 261-273, August.
    2. Stéphane Bonhomme & Jean-Marc Robin, 2009. "Assessing the Equalizing Force of Mobility Using Short Panels: France, 1990-2000," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(1), pages 63-92.
    3. Bradley Hardy, 2014. "Childhood Income Volatility and Adult Outcomes," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1641-1665, October.
    4. Jin Jiang & Hon-Kwong Lui, 2025. "Lifetime Earnings Premium of Higher Education: Evidence from the 40-Year Career of the 1951–1955 Birth Cohort in Hong Kong," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 66(3), pages 1-20, May.
    5. Dodin, Majed & Findeisen, Sebastian & Henkel, Lukas & Sachs, Dominik & Schüle, Paul, 2024. "Social mobility in Germany," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    6. Chen, Wen-Hao & Ostrovsky, Yuri & Piraino, Patrizio, 2017. "Lifecycle variation, errors-in-variables bias and nonlinearities in intergenerational income transmission: new evidence from Canada," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-12.
    7. Monique De Haan & Edwin Leuven, 2020. "Head Start and the Distribution of Long-Term Education and Labor Market Outcomes," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(3), pages 727-765.
    8. Marco Bertoni & Giorgio Brunello, 2016. "Later-borns Don’t Give Up: The Temporary Effects of Birth Order on European Earnings," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(2), pages 449-470, April.
    9. Bhashkar Mazumder, 2018. "Intergenerational Mobility in the United States: What We Have Learned from the PSID," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 680(1), pages 213-234, November.
    10. Tejada, Mauricio M., 2016. "Lifetime inequality measures for an emerging economy: The case of Chile," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-15.
    11. Rolf Aaberge & Magne Mogstad, 2015. "Inequality in current and lifetime income," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 44(2), pages 217-230, February.
    12. Pellicer, Miquel, 2018. "The evolution of returns to education in the Middle East and North Africa: Evidence from comparable education policy changes in Tunisia," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 183-191.
    13. Timothy M. Smeeding, 2018. "The PSID in Research and Policy," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 680(1), pages 29-47, November.
    14. Rajeev Darolia & Dubravka Ritter, 2020. "Strategic Default Among Private Student Loan Debtors: Evidence from Bankruptcy Reform," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 15(3), pages 487-517, Summer.
    15. Flabbi, Luca & Leonardi, Marco, 2010. "Sources of earnings inequality: Estimates from an on-the-job search model of the US labor market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 832-854, August.
    16. Necker, Sarah & Voskort, Andrea, 2014. "Intergenerational transmission of risk attitudes – A revealed preference approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 66-89.
    17. Martin Nybom & Jan Stuhler, 2016. "Heterogeneous Income Profiles and Lifecycle Bias in Intergenerational Mobility Estimation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(1), pages 239-268.
    18. Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Dahmann, Sarah C. & Kamhöfer, Daniel A. & Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah, 2025. "Schooling and Self-Control," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    19. Mello, Ursula & Nybom, Martin & Stuhler, Jan, 2022. "A lifecycle estimator of intergenerational income mobility," Working Paper Series 2022:21, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    20. P. Jenkins, Stephen & Jäntti, Markus, 2013. "Income mobility," ISER Working Paper Series 2013-23, Institute for Social and Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:52:y:2015:i:4:p:1383-1407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.