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Addressing the pro-cyclicality of capital requirements with a dynamic loan loss provision system

Author

Listed:
  • José L. Fillat
  • Judit Montoriol-Garriga

Abstract

The pro-cyclical effect of bank capital requirements has attracted much attention in the post-crisis discussion of how to make the financial system more stable. This paper investigates and calibrates a dynamic provision as an instrument for addressing pro-cyclicality. The model for the dynamic provision is adopted from the Spanish banking regulatory system. We argue that, had U.S. banks set aside general provisions in positive states of the economy, they would have been in a better position to absorb their portfolios’ loan losses during the recent financial turmoil. The allowances accumulated by means of the hypothetical dynamic provision during the cyclical upswing would have reduced by half the amount of TARP funds required. However, the cyclical buffer for the aggregate U.S. banking system would have been depleted by the first quarter of 2009, which suggests that the proposed provisioning model for expected losses might not entirely solve situations as severe as the one experienced in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • José L. Fillat & Judit Montoriol-Garriga, 2010. "Addressing the pro-cyclicality of capital requirements with a dynamic loan loss provision system," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU10-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbqu:qau10-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    2. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2004. "Using Asset Prices to Measure the Cost of Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1223-1256, December.
    3. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2006. "Banks'procyclicality behavior : does provisioning matter ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    4. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2012. "Do Dynamic Provisions Enhance Bank Solvency and Reduce Credit Procyclicality? a Study of the Chilean Banking System," IMF Working Papers 12/124, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy, Countercyclical Bank Capital Buffers, and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Spanish Dynamic Provisioning Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 2126-2177.
    3. Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina, 2011. "The Countercyclical Capital Buffer of Basel III: A Critical Assessment," Working Papers wp2011_1102, CEMFI, revised Jun 2011.
    4. repec:kap:jfsres:v:52:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10693-016-0255-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Chile: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 11/262, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ozili, Peterson K, 2017. "Bank Loan Loss Provisions Research: A Review," MPRA Paper 76495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Torsten Wezel & Jorge A Chan-Lau & Francesco Columba, 2012. "Dynamic Loan Loss Provisioning; Simulationson Effectiveness and Guide to Implementation," IMF Working Papers 12/110, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Lakshmi Balasubramanyan & James B. Thomson & Saeed Zaman, 2013. "Are banks forward-looking in their loan loss provisioning? Evidence from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS)," Working Paper 1313, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Beatty, Anne & Liao, Scott, 2014. "Financial accounting in the banking industry: A review of the empirical literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 339-383.
    10. Schwarz Claudia & Karakitsos Polychronis & Merriman Niall & Studener Werner, 2015. "Why Accounting Matters: A Central Bank Perspective," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-42, March.
    11. Malgorzata Olszak, 2012. "Macroprudential policy - aim, instruments and institutional architecture (Polityka ostroznosciowa w ujêciu makro - cel, instrumenty i architektura instytucjonalna)," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 10(39), pages 7-32.
    12. repec:fip:fedcwp:13-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Vasiliki MAKRI & Konstantinos PAPADATOS, 2016. "Determinants Of Loan Quality: Lessons From Greek Cooperative Banks," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 115-140, June.
    14. Office of Financial Research (ed.), 2013. "Office of Financial Research 2013 Annual Report," Reports, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, number 13-2.

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    Keywords

    Bank capital ; Troubled Asset Relief Program;

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