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Evidence of Forward-Looking Loan Loss Provisioning with Credit Market Information

Author

Listed:
  • Lakshmi Balasubramanyan

    (The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

  • James B. Thomson

    (The University of Akron)

  • Saeed Zaman

    (The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

Abstract

Our paper makes a fundamental contribution by studying loan loss provisioning over the credit cycle as three distinct phases. Looking at the three distinct phases of the financial crisis – the pre-crisis period, crisis period, and post-crisis period – is important as loan loss provisioning is driven by different factors in each, in part due to extensive shifts in (or in the application of) regulatory rule. Controlling for credit market information using data from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Surveys (SLOOS) we extend the work of previous studies of forward-looking loan loss provisions using the delayed expected loss recognition approach. We contribute to the growing literature on forward-looking loan loss provisioning and early in the cycle loss recognition by incorporating a broader range of available credit information and explicitly controlling for structural breaks in the sample corresponding to the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Lakshmi Balasubramanyan & James B. Thomson & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Evidence of Forward-Looking Loan Loss Provisioning with Credit Market Information," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 191-223, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:52:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10693-016-0255-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10693-016-0255-0
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jinyong Kim & Mingook Kim & Yongsik Kim, 2020. "Bank Transparency and the Market’s Perception of Bank Risk," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 115-142, December.
    3. Maximilian Zurek, 2022. "Real Estate Markets and Lending: Does Local Growth Fuel Risk?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 27-59, October.
    4. Behn, Markus & Couaillier, Cyril, 2023. "Same same but different: credit risk provisioning under IFRS 9," Working Paper Series 2841, European Central Bank.
    5. Simper, Richard & Dadoukis, Aristeidis & Bryce, Cormac, 2019. "European bank loan loss provisioning and technological innovative progress," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 119-130.
    6. Ailian Zhang & Shuyao Wang & Bai Liu & Pei Liu, 2022. "How fintech impacts pre‐ and post‐loan risk in Chinese commercial banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2514-2529, April.
    7. Zhang, Ailian & Wang, Shuyao & Liu, Bai & Fu, Jingyuan, 2020. "The double-edged sword effect of diversified operation on pre- and post-loan risk in the government-led Chinese commercial banks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loan loss provisioning; Forward-looking; Income smoothing; Capital management; Early loss recognition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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